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Advisor

If you believe the bond market

things aren't looking so good. 30 yr. yield crashed to 1.955%. If you'd like to lend the US government money for 30 years at that rate then be my guest.

2/10 spread in the sharpest inversion yet.

No hurry* but if you believe The Squad is going to take over and "debase the currency" the horse to ride would be an inverse long bond ETF.

*I missed buying gold several times in the past 8 years on account of not being in a hurry. A curious affair- you wouldn't expect to see gold and bonds both in a bull market. Neither tends to portend well.

 

8 Replies
Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

Could be like one of the bright lights of the economic wingersphere said about the crash that began in 2007- it anticipated that Obama would be elected.

Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

The stock market is hinting and the bond market is shouting- somethin' ain't quite right here.

As a general rule, listen to the bond market.

Senior Contributor

Re: If you believe the bond market

(The stock market is hinting and the bond market is shouting- somethin' ain't quite right here.)

Wouldn't be a good idea for us to wait and see what Krugman says?

Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

Being a troll doesn't help you make money.

Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

You must have taken Red’s asinine post regarding all of the rocket scientist level comments that show up in response to even the most moderate mainstream articles. 

There is obviously a rather large army out there. Not to mention the amateurs and wannabees. 

Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

lol Edmund!

if I had a portfolio consisting entirely of using 180 degree reverse positions from what Puke and Nutz recommend, I wager it would eclipse the gains of even the top market analyst.

 

Honored Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-28/economists-are-actually-terrible-at-forecasting-r...  

 

Look, at some point there will be a crash, the debit is unpayable, if we go chapter 12 and most of it is written off, that will put the kibosh on this living beyond our means.  The party will end, maybe Trump will lose and the Democrats can blame Trump until we are back into the stone age again, but it will end.  Interest rates will determine how much longer it goes, when the Fed was raising rates last year, it was as though they wanted it to end before the 2020 election...hmmmm. 

Obama doubled and added $10 Trillion to the national debt, Trump can not do that we simply can not have a $40 Trillion national debt, something between now and $40 Trillion will have to give and that means no free college, no green new deal, no free healthcare for everyone, no dragging in hardup clowns from around the world. 

Advisor

Re: If you believe the bond market

Yes, economists are bad at it, pundits (such as our non-economist Chief Economic Advisor) worse.

The bond market is much better.

If you made me offer a guess as to what is going on I'd say that business activity is slowing a bit but the greater factor is that the market is losing faith in this POTUS. Tired of being whipsawed as the realization that a quick resolution to China trade isn't nigh and they've just been played by the constant information management. Not that they don't like being played on up days.

Which could ultimately have a part in creating a recession.