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Senior Advisor

March natural gas futures, $3.10, Putin sure f***ed that up.

Gas futures haven't been this low since Jun. '21.  Putin starts a war, counting on holding Europe's gas supply hostage but the high prices for gas last summer stimulated production all over the world.  Now if Russia ever comes back online, it will be selling gas into an oversupplied market for years to come.  Meanwhile, those countries still buying Russian gas are a fraction of its previous customers' demand with a 30% discount on top of the market price.

  Low prices and low volumes equal really low money.  Last year at this time Russia was selling $500 M Euros per day of gas, now it's 91 M,  an 80% decline.  A year ago, Russian oil revenues were 670 M Euros per day, now they're estimated to 370 Euro, 45% decline.   In 2021, oil & gas revenues amounted to 45% of the Russian Federal budget.

   Russian oil & gas revenues are 37% of a year ago, if the tax revenues are in the same proportion, the Russian budget has a major hole in it.