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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Math problem

Hospitalization rate down 4 fold. Thank you, vaccine scientists.

Cases doubling every 13 days, primarily among the unvaccinated minority.

Linear vs. exponential.

Call the Milligan Bros. and have them explain to you what that means.

32 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Math problem

While unquestionably there are a great many unreported cases due to very low testing, still.

Mortality rate holding at about 2% of reported cases from 2 weeks prior.

Math suggests about 300k  cases/day in 40 days, followed by about 6k deaths per day in 60 days.

Assuming vaccinations continue to rise- and rise sharply starting in a few weeks as deaths mount- probably looking at Wave 4 burning itself out in Oct as the combination of natural and vaccinated immunity reaches herd protection.

There was an easier way to do this.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Math problem

50-75M Americans entirely naive to the disease would make it very easy to kill off another 200k or so in this wave.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Math problem

Upon review, I think I should move the benchmark case timing a bit, which might suggest 1.5% mortality and a worst case daily mortality closer to 2K than 4K- when you compound them those tweeks add up.

Important, because as before, you'll get hit with "lol, you said there would be 2M deaths and there were only 1M!!!!! You're a liar!!!!"

Followed by "I really owned that durn lib, heeheehee,"

 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Math problem

Be honest Nox, you don`t give two sh-ts about those who die "from Covid", you just are setting the narrative to get ahead of Biden getting blame for ....anything.  And to kill two birds with one stone, blame the "unvaccinated".   You can post volumes, but that is what it boils down to.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: Math problem

(Be honest Nox, you don`t give two sh-ts about those who die "from Covid", you just are setting the narrative to get ahead of Biden getting blame for ....anything.  And to kill two birds with one stone, blame the "unvaccinated".   You can post volumes, but that is what it boils down to.)

I and most of us knew and know that our dear leader old senile joe is an idiot and we understood that he was going to make a mess of a lot of things in our Country - but I didn't think he would completely botch covid after Trump did all the heavy lifting.

So yea, I understand the pre-emptive excuses for old senile joe from the winger crowd.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Math problem

Couldn't have been any clearer where I stood since the Holy Mother Of God!!! tweet in January '20.

You and the commie known as Gooby and other things were stirring the justtheflu narrative.

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Quite the contrary BA, ....

"Don't give two sh*ts"? Unlike Sam, you, and some others, SD has never argued for "let it run its course, kill whom it will,  and live with the consequences. 

  Quite the contrary, SD has very consistently argued for mitigations measures, responsible behavior, and now widespread vaccination in order to minimize the terrible toll of avoidable & unnecessary deaths.  Maybe SD is simply frustrated by the awful inevitibility of the numbers.

  It seems to me it's you who doesn't "give two shi*ts" about the situation we find ourselves in.  Or maybe it weighs on your conscience that you failed to "give two sh*ts" earlier when it could have made a difference. 

  What has become all too apparent now, is there will be no escaping this Delta variant, it will test each of us, vaccinated or not and vaccination offers us each  the best chance of avoiding the worse possible consequences regardless of our pre-existing circumstances.

  BA, don't keep making this political, it's way beyond that now.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: Quite the contrary BA, ....

(BA, don't keep making this political, it's way beyond that now.)

Yea, as of 1/20/2021 that's not allowed anymore - hypocrats.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Quite the contrary BA, ....

Say it ain`t so...

If Trump tells us to take COVID vaccine, I won't': Kamala Harris - YouTube