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Senior Advisor

Mitch waited too long

for a relief extension if the objective ever was to help folks and/or continue the economic recovery as seamlessly as possible.

Economic data is deteriorating and I expect Powell will note as much when he speaks this afternoon. The Fed is pretty well spent and he's been begging for fiscal action.

I'm not even very sure about the premise of huge consumer spending as the pandemic winds down in summer and fall. The 80% bought a lot of stuff over the last 10 months. I expect they'll start spending with some abandon on travel and events but the general goods purchases may have been a bit cannibalized.

And at least 3 months dead ahead are going to be tough.

2 Replies
bruce MN

Re: Mitch waited too long

Going to do my red Steele imitation here and go all anecdotal, but we take a certain amount of confidence that for whatever reason we know and stay in touch with an extremely broad and diverse, in every way, number of people, that having been built over a long, long period of building trust and points for diplomacy. 

What you say about the mass of people in the essentially unaffected or highly protected (ahem....AG forum) is 100% spot on. They done been doin’ their consuming. All the while saving. 

Likely now  to become like our grandparents who hacked their way through the Depression were for the rest of their lives. There might be a run on cream cans. 

Senior Advisor

Re: Mitch waited too long

This market is more similar to the 2000 bubble in that it won't end until all the money has been thrown on the bonfire.

But the recent activity is making it look ripe.

I can make a case for a major, long term bear market but for now there is absolute faith that the gubmint and Fed can always intervene and make it go up. 

All to be seen in due course, but it would be very helpful to have the overdue 20% selloff start now rather than in Feb.

Even for bulls a correction would be healthy.