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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

US debt short term has been a good bet, because the referees/federal reserve is on our payroll, we grade our own papers...no wonder we`re always on the Dean`s List  :)...prettiest girl in the Leaper colony. 

 

But as I told Don, I expect us to ignore the problem and at the last minute print our way out.  However what does that do to our precious credit rating?  Greek bonds anyone?  They`re 8% ...8% times $20 Trillion nat debt is $1.6 Trillion on the deficit right off the bat...before a single social security check is sent out or a single kid is sent to free college.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

Assuming the degree of financial market conniptions was manageable, my guess on the general impact of a SupertrumpQE would be disappointing, as have the previous QEs.

 

A true believer might decide to assume that the concurrent protectionism would provide the means by which all the free cash would be transmitted to main street but I think it is a huge stretch to try to connect the dots. I'm thinking that the money just chases assets and we've been seeing for the better part of a couple decades that has weak, and declining transmission.

 

The plot thickens a bunch here, though, as it appears that Trump may pivot and run as a nativist, white power Bernie, sort of a national, modern Huey Long.

 

It could work. As I've noted before via the Wisonsin phenomenon, good folks are generally pretty happy with progressivism as long as they're the beneficiaries and not The Other.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

Short dated stuff is just cash that bypasses the bank.

 

Long dated has been fabulous property, the longer the better. As I recently posted at Business, the US 30 year has been about the best and simplest no fuss no muss investment to hold over the last decade.

 

Which would be about 180 degrees opposite of what almost all the nervous nelly guru entreprenuers were saying- and nearly as much for most of the Very Smart People.

 

The fundamental fact about Trump is that the Good People have reached the point (with considerable help from various propaganda outlets over a couple decades, I'll venture) that I have always said I most fear- where "things can't get any worse so somebody do something" and many are heading over across town to the new Scientology megachurch.

 

In my experience, things can always get worse.

 

 

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

I just wonder how many more presidents we can go through willing to double the national debt.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

If you look closely that is approximately half on account of lost revenue owing to the financial crisis, approximately ca. 2008-11.

 

That brings the level of the stakes into focus here- if we try something radical and it fails, resulting in a sharp recession, we really could go past the point of no return, fairly quickly.

 

Anybody trying to say what Trump might actually be planning at this point is just trying to catch a fart in a butterfly net.  But it is fair to say that the most frightening economic prospect- a Cruz Administration going Full Kansas, has nearly been eliminated.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Peter Schiff, Trump right on the debt

Revenues are at a record.

OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: What it proves

Don't start talking ABOUT CUTTING GOVERNMENT until Mitt and Warren pay the same tax rates as i do.

 

Conservative think the way to prosperity is to cut domestic spending and give tax incentive to businesses.

Cutting domestic spending means those with the least are punished the most. Therefore, you want to create your personal nirvana atthe expense of the under employed, the poor and the aged. And you think you are a fine christian that cares about his fellow man. What aload of horse patootie!

 

Most of the debt has been created by the falacy that tax cuts promote growth. After 15 years of the Bush cheney tax cuts and we are swimming in debt. Where are the jobs and the pay increases that the Bush plan was supposed to produce?

OKdon
Senior Contributor

Re: what you can't seem to get through your skull

Is that business and the economy will thrive with working folks with money in their pockets. Rather than taxing the crap out of the working class, one might choose to tax the business and the investor class.

 

Working people with money spend it buying goods and services. Investors with money choose to invest it or reinvest it. Businesses that thrive don't pay taxes and they don't give labor a pay raise. Unfortunately, the right wing thinks that low cost labor is great for the economy when it really stifles economic opportunity.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: What it proves

Business will migrate to where it is the most profitable to do business. And tax revenue are now at record levels yet the GDP is barely above recession recession levels.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: what you can't seem to get through your skull

I have stood up and stood up for working folks all the live long day.  But you have to have living wage jobs to get any economic traction, working at Dollar General just doesn`t cut it. 

 

If you`ll listen to the Schiff interview, he says what i`ve been saying that 100 years ago, we made a deal with the devil and cut tariffs and replaced it with the federal income tax.   We probably got by with that for 75 years, but the last 25 years it`s been an exodus of living wage jobs.  Only half the country actually ever owes any federal income tax and half are on welfare and we run $700 Billion trade deficits every year...that can`t go on

 

Trump is the only one that recognizes we have to put tariffs on goods coming into the US to make foreign goods uncompetetive, that will either pay our social costs or force the factories to move back where the goods wouldn`t be subject to a tariff.

 

But you can tax Mitt Romney and Warren Buffet and the Kochs and Warren Buffet`s secretary and everyone making over $250,000/year charge `em 100% tax, take all their money and you`d run the government for 141 days...nevermind the fact that`d be a one shot deal.  It isn`t that simple to tax those that have a dollar more than you extra and it`ll be a bed of roses.   But I know I know "No one is proposing a 100% tax bracket"  That`s right even Bernie Sanders is only at 90%, which even makes my point better, there`s even be less revenue.