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bruce MN
Advisor

Polls... you’ll feel much better

4 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Polls... you’ll feel much better

At approximately this point in '16, MI, WI, PA polls were starting to tighten, and a few people were noticing and doing the math.

Sure no indication of that at the moment, and FLA is slipping away a bit for him.

AZ appeared to tighten but is moving back out.

OH, IA are even in the quality polls.

I think all we're talking about now is whether he can get close enough to make a ruckus.

Although Red thinks he'll get the sympathy vote. Like Reagan did when he shot himself after shooting 200K Americans, I guess?

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Polls... you’ll feel much better

Looking back at the final polling period before the '16 election.

Aggregate national polls were off about 2% in favor of Clinton, 2-4% in WI, MI, PA. So even allowing for a surge of those shy DD voters, they're all out of reach by these measures.

And I actually think the difference between this one and that one are more apples and oranges. Tons of undecided voters right up to election day and a couple pretty strong 3rd party choices.

This one has never moved much- it is similar to the paired choice of Biden/DD back before the nomination, and has hardly moved 2 pts off center either way since.

No one cares about my opinion but if anything I could see Biden adding a couple of point to these margins, which would approach landslide territory.

Pretty darn tough to sue your way around 350+ EVs.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: Polls... you’ll feel much better

(538 election forecast)

Is 538 there accuracy %?  After the 2016 538 debacle I'm surprised they are still in business, but it would be nice for 538 if they could get one right - or at least closer to right.

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Polls... you’ll feel much better

 

Were closer than virtually any other organ. Had Dennison within the margin of error in each of those tight states that swung it.

Go in there....which I’m sure you haven’t and won’t.... and check that running model that is updated hourly. And FYI they don’t do any polling. They comprise and factor the others.