cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Veteran Advisor

Reality TV economics

even more than history, in the age of the internet and alternative media anybody can and will believe what they want.

But I'll propose the counterfactual case that had Dennison just acted more or less conventionally, the short term economic situation would look similar and the long term better.

Growth, employment, other metrics are following right along the trend established since the bottom in '09. No reason to think that the stock bull wouldn't have continued although indices wouldn't be this high- actually a good thing, because what goes irrationally up goes irrationally down.

The trend toward a balanced budget would have continued and would be near balanced and the Fed could have continued to normalize and reduce its balance sheet.

The tax cuts produced 1 year of above trend growth but for the 3 years it is right on trend. Whatever value they had was countered by trade conflicts (which yielded little concrete result) and the resulting uncertainty caused by erratic leadership.

But regardless of who's POTUS the next four years, the divergence from an form of conventional monetary and fiscal approach is now probably more or less permanent.

An unstable leader enabled by a Cult of his personality will have consequences.

 

19 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Reality TV economics

The real truth of the matter is that the debt is too high to grow or TAX your way out of.   I am impressed that the stock market added $17 trillion to the economy (national debt $22 Trillion) however, that $17 Trillion is on paper, start selling and it disappears faster than there would be buyers.

Yes, TSHTF one day and  TEOTWAWKI, however while we`re around the burning barrel roasting a squirrel do we want to share with 30 million Mexicans?

Veteran Advisor

Re: Reality TV economics

Trump Cultists are almost universally "things can't get any worse, so do something" impatient radicals. American Carnage (ongoing) was a dogwhistle to them.

Yes they can, always.

BTW, that is an outgrowth of the aforementioned Manufactured Nihilism.

Senior Advisor

Re: Reality TV economics

Yet instead of coming up with a budget the do nothing dems has the congress tied up with impeachment.

Senior Contributor

11/09/2016

The economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency will probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman warned in a New York Times opinion piece published early Wednesday.

Calling Trump the "mother of all adverse effects," the Nobel Prize-winning economist predicted that the GOP nominee's administration could quickly undo the progress that the markets around the world have made in the eight years since the financial crisis.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055

Veteran Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

Nice straw man.

Although "libertarians" (and Buchananites, Perotists mostly too) have built in deniability since they were always against everything.

I suppose you were quite untroubled when we were running huge deficits and the Fed aggressively expanding its balance sheet while the economy was experiencing a severe shortfall of demand, very high unemployment, etc?

Now OK when we have pretty high capacity utilization and near full employment?

For the sake of power, yes. Anything.

Honored Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

Nox wrote:  "Although "libertarians" (and Buchananites, Perotists mostly too) have built in deniability since they were always against everything."

Well, yes and if you`re against drinking alcohol you never have to worry about getting a DWI.  If you`re against over eating sugar you don`t have to worry about getting type 2 diabetes.  If you`re against smoking you lessen your worry about throat and lung cancer.  

 

Senior Contributor

Re: 11/09/2016


A person with an even small amount of cranial power when faced with always being wrong would show some reluctance to express their thoughts in such voluminous amounts, but you just keep plowing ahead.   Well, I guess I already addressed they why of that, nothing more needed.

Veteran Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

How so?

$T deficits, QE4ever?

Honored Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

$ Trillion deficits and QE spending and ZIRP made the deaf, dumb and blind think that Obama was a financial genius for 8 years.  Truth be told, we`re in a era that is the only policy that will keep the economy out of a depression.

Even with rates as low as they can go still servicing the national debt is a chunk of change on $22 Trillion.  And you cut entitlements people starve and riot in the streets and whoever is in office will get voted out at the next election if not impeached first.

Anyone want to propose cutting social security...welfare to Chicago and Detroit?  Anyone?   Burn baby burn!