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Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

 

 

4 1/2 years (maybe) to go before the topic is even worthy of discussion. By Jan ‘12 the markets weren’t close to the doubling + they achieved post Sept ‘08 by 16.

Crazy thing is about “conservatives”, “libertarians”, “Republicans” supporting this held together with duct tape and baling wire highly financialized and hideously indebted business is that the principles being applied aren’t within a million light years of Friedman, Rand, Hayek, Laffer...who have you?

It’s all full blown Keynesianism and fiscal Socialism.  Nothing tangible to show for it, but total disregard for deficits or for a general well being.

Obama Derangement Syndrome.  Much written about how the mortification that the T. Roosevelt Administration’s reforms brought to the plutocracy had such a long tail and drag on it that it can be traced for over 20 years of deregulation and legislation and outright criminality and corruption leading up to October 1929. The most fetid figures through that period were what today would be referred to as “moderate Republicans,”. Some rather good people got undeservedly trashed over it. SEE: Herbert Hoover

Those dozens of GOP House members who are not seeking re-election aren’t going to jail like Collins did. More than a few quite obviously simply want to become disassociated.

 

Got a hot tip for ya’......focus your attention on retail stocks and attendance at non-Super or “Finals” big ticket entertainment and sporting events through the Spring and Summer.  Nobody trusts this thing.

Senior Contributor

Re: 11/09/2016

Supporting it or just resigned to it

 

I don't take tips from idiots.

Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

Greenspan hitting the gas (pre-Y2K, post LTC/Russia etc.) powered stocks to similarly rich valuations. 

Although in fairness the budget was balanced, growth was 4% and personal income was rising pretty well- the last such time except when recently coming out of the hole.

Along the lines of wondering what Jerry Powell is really thinking, always thought it was fascinating that Greenspan's sealed doctoral dissertation (never conferred, not that I care) was about the dangers of financial bubbles and the need for the Fed to cut them off.

I used to joke that Clinton must have naked pictures of The Maestro. Upon reflection I think he just liked his job and loved being a star.

Senior Contributor

Re: 11/09/2016


@bruce MN wrote:

 

 

4 1/2 years (maybe) to go before the topic is even worthy of discussion. By Jan ‘12 the markets weren’t close to the doubling + they achieved post Sept ‘08 by 16.

Crazy thing is about “conservatives”, “libertarians”, “Republicans” supporting this held together with duct tape and baling wire highly financialized and hideously indebted business is that the principles being applied aren’t within a million light years of Friedman, Rand, Hayek, Laffer...who have you?

It’s all full blown Keynesianism and fiscal Socialism.  Nothing tangible to show for it, but total disregard for deficits or for a general well being.

Obama Derangement Syndrome.  Much written about how the mortification that the T. Roosevelt Administration’s reforms brought to the plutocracy had such a long tail and drag on it that it can be traced for over 20 years of deregulation and legislation and outright criminality and corruption leading up to October 1929. The most fetid figures through that period were what today would be referred to as “moderate Republicans,”. Some rather good people got undeservedly trashed over it. SEE: Herbert Hoover

Those dozens of GOP House members who are not seeking re-election aren’t going to jail like Collins did. More than a few quite obviously simply want to become disassociated.

 

Got a hot tip for ya’......focus your attention on retail stocks and attendance at non-Super or “Finals” big ticket entertainment and sporting events through the Spring and Summer.  Nobody trusts this thing.


I've mentioned it here recently ........ many trucking companies struggling and going out ....... 650 + in 2019..... compared to 175 in 2018 , 160 in 2017...  Spot freight market is in a shambles.   KW dealer called and said I could have new trucks in a week if I wanted , the last 5 years it has been 2 month lead time, minimum , if not longer........ Everything moves on trucks.  The last time I saw this was when the Bush boy was approaching his lame duck period 2008. 

Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

Shouldn’t have said “tip” as I would never give investment advice to anyone.  

More a POI.  Follow along on those if you might be interested. 

Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

CASS domestic freight and Baltic Dry indices suck bad, manufacturing PMIs generally soft- but they're like company earnings where "better than expected" off lowered expectations is a good reason to run stocks up another 1% on the day.

Housing is getting a small boost from cheap money but mostly it is about trying to transmit monetary policy to the economy by ramping stocks- a weak means at best.

A couple of possible scenarios-

Stocks continue into meltup mode and the economy does OK off the scraps- the administration has given every signal to Wall Street that they'll keep the market up no matter what and The Boyz aren't stupid- they'll gladly take the money and worry abuot what comes next later. This is the worst possible scenario- politics aside- because it will dump a lot of pain on the next admin, Trump or other. Remember, ETTD is a fact.

Or, sometime in the next few months the reality dawns that the real economy ain't so great and the market is about 20% overvalued- which means it will initially go down about 40%.

We'll see.

History says stay long until there's a 10%ish selloff, then sell the bounce. Go short on new lows for the move.

Honored Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

How much of the lack of new tractor purchases has to do with the hours of service regulation change?  11 hours doesn`t cut it as far as earning potential for some drivers.  11 hours unless it`s a husband and wife team probably can`t get feeder cattle hauled to where they need to be fed, so they just don`t get hauled in some cases. 

And how many drivers can pass the piss test anymore?   And what about a .04 blood alcohol for CDL holders vs the .08 for 4 wheelers? 

Then trucks last longer, no need to replace?  and what wrong with building a cash reserve instead of investing in new tractors?

I know it`s safety concerns about tired drivers and all that, however "safety" doesn`t come cheap or free.   With all that, there is a shortage of drivers.

Advisor

Re: 11/09/2016

https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index

CASS freight index is more than an isolated data point- hasn't dropped like this since 2/08.

To my initial point. All the floundering around is disruptive.

Dennison could have put together some real experts to renegotiate NAFTA and put together a multilateral strategy on China and gone golfing 90% of the time instead of just half- and the economy would be just as good or better.

"The market" would also likely have continued higher as well, although not into bubble territory. Which would be much better for him or whomever succeeds him.

He's a very foolish man.

Advisor

to my point

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/former-trump-economic-adviser-gary-cohn-president-us...

Although Cohn was a George Soros globalist mole (dogwhistle intended).

Advisor

Worth sneaking around the paywall