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Rotten eggs and tomatoes

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/23/3683536/omalley-climate-change-isis/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/25/syrian-drought-created-isis-urban-myth/

 

coming my way but I'm heading out for the day anyway.

 

Two links in the spirit of being Fair and Balanced.

 

First I don't think anyone can prove that the Syrian drought was caused by climate change any more than you can our 2012 drought. There have been droughts before.

 

But I've long maintained that the wheat price spike of 2008-12 was a driver in Middle East instability. And actually predicted it (Krugman alert).

 

Now if you want to contend that we never should have been dumping, and gifting,  cheap wheat into the world market which permitted an urban population explosion in that desolate part of the world, OK. But that was a part of both our past internationalist view and farm policy since WWII.

 

Price spikes happen periodically although there may have been consequences to turbocharging this one with an ethanol program of such magnitude.  At the outer limits grain prices are highly inelastic- a 5% cut in supply might result in a 20% rise in price, a 20% cut 300%.

 

Now if you want to protest at being a (temporarily very well compensated) pawn in a very complicated system I won't blame you.

 

Anyway, it is now in the history books and the grain ethanol program isn't likely to go much of anywhere, which may end up pleasing no one but that's where the political inertia came to rest.

 

2 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Rotten eggs and tomatoes


@hardnox wrote:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/23/3683536/omalley-climate-change-isis/

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/25/syrian-drought-created-isis-urban-myth/

 

coming my way but I'm heading out for the day anyway.

 

Two links in the spirit of being Fair and Balanced.

 

First I don't think anyone can prove that the Syrian drought was caused by climate change any more than you can our 2012 drought. There have been droughts before.

 

But I've long maintained that the wheat price spike of 2008-12 was a driver in Middle East instability. And actually predicted it (Krugman alert).

 

Now if you want to contend that we never should have been dumping, and gifting,  cheap wheat into the world market which permitted an urban population explosion in that desolate part of the world, OK. But that was a part of both our past internationalist view and farm policy since WWII.

 

Price spikes happen periodically although there may have been consequences to turbocharging this one with an ethanol program of such magnitude.  At the outer limits grain prices are highly inelastic- a 5% cut in supply might result in a 20% rise in price, a 20% cut 300%.

 

Now if you want to protest at being a (temporarily very well compensated) pawn in a very complicated system I won't blame you.

 

Anyway, it is now in the history books and the grain ethanol program isn't likely to go much of anywhere, which may end up pleasing no one but that's where the political inertia came to rest.

 


If government policies cause such chaos why do you want an ever expanding federal government? See what heppens when you don't let the market decide.

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Advisor

Re: Rotten eggs and tomatoes

Probably not all that big of a deal in the general situation or discussion, but there are volumes in the need that the Breitbart author felt in dragging a young pop singer into the swamp.