Rust Belt- I think there's some truth in this
Many Rust Belt cities are doing tolerably well, at least compared to the recent past, but are turning bluer. Some of those places are now surprisingly diverse.
Meanwhile, American Carnage continues to devour a lot of rural Trumpland, which will double down for him in '20. The question is how many more people are there to be energized?
Conventional wisdom says that Trump can't win without the 78,000 votes in 3 states that elected him in '16.
Although the precincts to which I refer were a very tight focus of campaign Russian disinformation so I'm waiting to see what sorts of fun things they can come up with.
Re: Rust Belt- I think there's some truth in this
An excellent study in the fact that people don't vote their pocketbooks, they vote how they feel.
Elkhart IN, heart of the trailer belt, was devastated by the Bush depression in '09- people don't buy RVs when they're scared to death and their 401K is down 50%.
Obama made a couple trips there during the campaign, and later, when he congratulated them on the fact that the place was humming along again, with very low unemployment.
Of course it went for Trump in by a wide margin in '16. It is pretty much humming along on the same path as the previous 6 or seven years, though. Pretty much like the rest of the country.