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Senior Contributor

Slow down folks!

Contrary to the learned opinions of the "best & brightest" now employed in our vaunted intelligence communities (i.e.CIA, DIA, NSA, and FBI), I do not believe the North Koreans have yet to achieve nuclear fission. I think what they did a few years ago was merely simulate an underground nuclear explosion to fool the west [Think large explosion using ample amounts of ordinary nuclear medical waste products.].


Nor do I think the North Koreans have anything close to an accurate intercontinental ballistic missile, much less one capable of delivering a nuclear payload.


On the other hand, if you were Kim Jong un and saw what happened to the two other nuclear wannabe (and now deceased) dictators in Libya and Iraq; what course of action would you pursue right now in light of America's threats? You do not have to be an NK homer to understand game theory.
Remember: 1. Soviet pilot Victor Belinko's Foxbat  25 defection to Japan back in the mid 1970s. After all of our intelligence experts talk of the unbeatable, super fighter F-25, The aircraft quickly revealed upon inspection to be little more than a 1950s era piece of flying junk including rivets and vacuum tubes, but powered by enormous engines.


2. The fall of the Berlin Wall and how none of second to none intelligence experts predicted the event within even 24 hours of it actually occurring.


3. The systematic and repeatedly gross over-estimations made over decades by our stellar intelligence communities about the economic strength the old Soviet Union. In hindsight, they were always completely correct right up until the point they were proven hopelessly and so consistently wrong after the USSR disintegrated.


4. Finally, remember the arrogant CIA Director George Tenant's confident "slam dunk" promise to George W. Bush about Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction.


Go slow folks. Please go slow. North Korea is not yet the existential threat that all of our neocons in Washington seem to think. It just isn't.

11 Replies

Re: Slow down folks!

If they faked their nuclear tests than they were pretty sophisticated to scatter post-fission isotopes.


Would those "folks in DC" include the tweeter in chief?



Senior Contributor

Re: Slow down folks!

just a smokescreen to get everyone off Russia Russia Russia.................. pre dawn raid on former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort's Virginia home with wide scope search warrants executed this AM by the FBI / Mueller.

Senior Contributor

Re: Slow down folks!

Absolutely, but then, I would have also included JFK in the Allen Foster-Dulles CIA sponsored fiasco called "the Bay of Pigs."


JFK may not have been the architect for that wacky Cuban goat roaping operation, but he certainly took the blame.


Re: Slow down folks!

Surely you're not suggesting that our Commander in Chief would move us closer to nuclear war so as to divert attention from his legal problems?


BTW, it appears that the raid on Manafort's home occurred a couple weeks ago. Durn MSM wasn't on the ball.


As far as Packard's queries, I would like to know more about the sudden intel drop saying that NK has achieved sufficient miniaturization of a warhead.


That would indeed by a concerning devleopment, I'd just like to know more about the provenance and timing.


Re: Slow down folks!

......or was the much publicized assessment of the Foxbat just a propaganda move?


Soviet and post-Soviet Russian weaponry has a pretty good reputation- if not superior in performance then good and generally a lot cheaper and easier and cheaper to maintain.


True of the good 'ol AK47 which is fondly regarded by millions of gun enthusiasts.


The T72 was a pretty good tank but had a problem- the barrel had to be retooled fairly frequently to maintain range. Saddam hadn't kept up on that and US tanks just stood outside their range and picked them off.


I wouldn't bet on the NoKo's making that mistake.

Senior Contributor

Re: Slow down folks!



True enough about the reliability of the AK-47, but building an automatic rifle is child's play compared to constructing a supersonic fighter plane. The American intelligence lesson from Belinko's captured F-25 was that our long held intel estimates of the plane were so woefully wrong.


Our radar trackers noted a Mach II plus Soviet aircraft screaming across their screens and the US intel boys then just assumed that if any plane could do that, then it must also be able to do everything else and more than our current prize in the arsenal, the F-14 Tomcat.


Bottom line: And much like listening too seriously to passionate global warming advocates, beware of acting on the opinions of over-confident, ideologically insulated, and arrogant intel experts. When they are wrong, they don't even apologize, but you are always left to clean up the mess.


BTW: T-72s blow out from the back and then burn brightly for hours. T-62s & T55s, on the other hand, blow up like enormous Roman Candles in ways you have probably never seen before.






Re: Slow down folks!

I partially agreed with your initial assessment- why the claim about the miniaturization threshold being crossed, and why just now?


My guesses will arrive at a very different place than yours will.


But NK is a problem, probably just not one that will be dealt with by the loonie-in-chief trying to outdo Kim for colorful threats, or is best dealt with by immediate military action.

Senior Contributor

Re: Slow down folks!

It isn't  the current POTUS that worries me. It is, what appears to be Washington's Dr. Strangelove rush for America to do something. Oftentimes the decision to make no decision is the very best course of action. I only wish right now that the collective wisdom of the bi-partisan power elites in our Capital would simply choose to do nothing about North Korea.


[Ref: a) President William McKinley & the USS Maine's boiler explosion that became the battle cry of the Spanish-American War. b) President Woodrow Wilson, the sinking of the (ammo carrying) Lusitania and the slap hazard  justification he used for America's entry into WW I. c) President Lyndon B. Johnson, the Gulf of Tonkin Incident and his telling of America's absolute necessity to escalate the Vietnam War, d) President Ronald Reagan and his ordered invasion of the tiny island of communist Grenada for God still knows what reason, e) President Bill Clinton's Balkan War for crimes of genocide that the rest of the entire world seemed curiously ambivalent about, f) President George W. Bush, and CIA Director, George Tenant's infamous intel fantasies of Weapons of Mass Destruction that led to the still ongoing second war with Iraq, and g) President Barack Obama's & Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's simply brilliant "lead from behind military strategy" to remove Khadafi from Libya without a thought of any possible unintended consequences ]  


"If the war had not managed to kill you, it was bound to get you to thinking."


George Orwell, reflecting back on the meaning of WW I and the 9 million men killed during the four year struggle.


Veteran Advisor

Re: Slow down folks!

Packard you forget to include the Zimmerman note that also helped get the U.S into WWI.