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Senior Contributor

The Canadian election

Not sure if your media is keeping you up to date with the Canadian election but it is looking like a majour change is coming.

Conservatives (right wing party) had most seats 143 before and 37% of vote.

Liberals (centre party) had next most 77 with 26% of vote

Bloc (Quebec only, separatist party, left policies) 49 with 10%

NDP (left policies) 37 with 18%

Several other small parties Green biggest with 7% of vote and no seats

 

Latest polls have 

Conservatives with 34.6%

NDP  31.4%

Liberals 20.4%

Green 6.3%

Bloc 5.2%

 

Looks like quite a change, now to see how the seat numbers turn out but Conservatives have been beating the drums for a majority and looks like they will get less but probably still have power with a smaller minority.

Maybe the Queen's representative will have some tough decisions to make if the only right wing party can not hold power and the left parties are able to join forces for a coalition.

 

Could be a long but interesting night tomorrow as the vote counts come in.

Hang on to your hats! 

22 Replies
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Senior Advisor

Re: The Canadian election

Hope you guys are able to elect the people who are best for your country and the world. I know very little of Canadian politics. It does seem most elections around the world lately have centered around change. I send best wishes to all involved to our neighbors to the north.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

Hope you guys are able to elect the people who are best for your country and the world  -  That sure has not be a priority in the US in the recent times.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The Canadian election

From what I read it looks like the conservatives cleaned up.

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Advisor

Re: The Canadian election

Looks like it turned out differently than the polls you cited predicted.

 

Appears to mirror the election we held here last fall. 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

 


@r3020 wrote:

From what I read it looks like the conservatives cleaned up.


 

Yes they got the majority of seats.

2% more of the votes but the splits went their way.

Splits worked better for them than most expected. I think most thought they would only get another minority.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

 


@bruce MN wrote:

Looks like it turned out differently than the polls you cited predicted.

 

Appears to mirror the election we held here last fall. 

 


 

Actually that poll (one of many) was quite close.

Conservatives got 39.6% of votes, more than that poll, but even slightly less than some polls indicated.

The NDP was almost the same at 30.6% as well as the Liberals at 19%

 

It was the splits, particularly in  Ontario that allowed the Conservatives to come through the middle and win seats.

Have to look at final results again but Conservatives gained seats in Eastern Canada and Ontario.

Lost half of their Quebec seats and another 1 or 2 in British Columbia.

Prairies were about the same.

Gives them a majority of seats with an extra 2-3% of the vote from the last election.

 

The surprise (although it was indicated in the poll) was the big losses of the Bloc, down to only 4 seats, and all new members.

Bloc leader and Liberal leader both lost their seats.

 

Oh yes and the Green parties leader won her seat. First win for the Greens.

 

As for mirroring your election, yes, in the sense that the most right wing party in Canada won the most seats BUT I think that the Conservatives are considered left of your Democratic party. Leader of Conservatives even mentioned in his victory speech that they will increase transfer money for our single payer Health Care System.

They do have other policies that are more right of centre like building more prisons for all the criminals and locking them up for longer terms. Doing away with the gun registry so all those criminals can get a gun easier I guess. Spending Billions of $ on jet fighters that your experts say will cost twice as much as the Conservatives say.

Now to see what they actually do pass. They have the seats to do it even in the Senate.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

Curious as to what your take is?  What sort of positive or negative changes do you coming out of a Conservative majority?  I live a few miles from New Brunswick and have a couple of friends in Frederiction who work for the government - I'm to hear what they think about it.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

 


@sharksoup wrote:

Curious as to what your take is?  What sort of positive or negative changes do you coming out of a Conservative majority?  I live a few miles from New Brunswick and have a couple of friends in Frederiction who work for the government - I'm to hear what they think about it.


 

I of course will just be guessing but they do have their majority in both houses so will do what they like I guess.

I have looked at numbers and news stories checking those numbers and expect they will not do as well financially as they say.

They are still going to reduce more taxes which means less income. They say they are going to reduce government through attrition so fewer employees but I have to question what will give with fewer workers since their platform has a number of programs that are going to be 'enhanced' or extended. This with fewer employees and less income.

They will no doubt keep beating the drums about 'getting tough on crime' with more prisons and longer jail terms. The Parliamentary Budget officer has already said their cost numbers on these programs are only half of what actual costs will be.

Deficit paid off in 2015 by their budget and 2014 by their election program.

Lots of promises for more payout programs to start in 2015 (after their term runs out and then only after the deficit is gone) which will never happen.

More military spending.

Oh yes one of the first things will see him scrapping the gun registry., the one they say cost too much, the one they declared you could get your registration for no fee so scrapping the income stream to cover costs.

I have not been a supporter of their many ignoring of and trampling of rules of parliament. Things that led to the Contempt of Parliament vote that caused this election so I expect we will see more rules broken, civil servants fired because they stick to rules etc. Will this lead groups to go the legal route to protect our system from abuse??

 

May be some repercussions from Quebec since they turfed half the Conservatives in their province and they are one of the biggest supporters of the gun registry.

 

Net outcome is we will probably pay less taxes and get less service with fewer civil servants and have deficits after their term runs out.


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Senior Contributor

Re: The Canadian election

"They are still going to reduce more taxes which means less income"

 

That's one of the biggest misconceptions about taxes.. Tax cuts have Never (Yes never) reduced revenues here in the US. Bush's revenues were on the way down and started going up after the tax cut. Granted this takes time. More economic output always adds to revenues. Increased Spending on the other hand creates 99% of "any" countries deficits. Clinton's revenues were down all the way until the late nineties.... When by some chance the capitol gains taxes were dramatically lowered (I bet the lefties forget that one bit of information). He raised taxes early in his first term and revenues were pretty flat. I wonder what made him agree to lowering the capitol gains taxes???? Oh yes maybe it was getting creamed by the election of 94. To his credit he bowed into their pressure and passed a lot of republican ideas as well as his own. I wish our leader would do the same. One thing that is more important than party for me is staying in business and its getting harder everyday to do.

If you look at Reagan, Kennedy, and Bush and only look at before and after tax cuts you'll see the same thing happened... Within 2 years of tax cuts the revenue started climbing. All three men cut taxes dramatically.  But as soon as you look at the rates of spending as well you'll see what really added to the deficit. They spent way more than they ever did before. I know Reagan did not have the house, but he spent way to much money. Granted its chump change compared to "Ohbama", but he was the leader at the time.  No one can spend that amount of money and expect to prosper for long. I hope the election helps your country as a rising tide does in time raise all ships. Sometimes it takes longer than we want, but such is life.

 

I wonder if many Canadians realize we (US) just borrowed more in 6 months than your whole freaking GDP for the year. No wonder the dollar continues to fall. God help us all.... Dang it I forgot about your non believing and all... Mother earth help us all. Just messing with you man.