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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

There's no road to Damascus

Dennison will probably get around 45% of the popular vote- down 1% from '16. Biden will probably get about 52%, primarily on account of considerably less than 6% voting for (non-Trump) novelty candidates and the Hillary Derangement Syndrome factor.

There's probably about 2% who are switching- 3M is plenty to get "walk away" testimonials and the reverse. Probably about 2:1 toward Biden, primarily educated suburban women.

Or, in general, just the expected result of 10M folks with high voting turnout and Trump leanings heading off the the great MAGA in the sky and 12M kids with the opposite tendencies but with a low propensity to vote replacing them.

Time marches on. 

Those kids think that 1955 was a long, long time ago. And it was.

That is probably a best case scenario for Trump- despite ongoing the catastrophes- that would put him within a point or two of his absolute natural ceiling. Probably requires a couple of October surprises to get him there. Calling Durham, Vaccine.

4 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: There's no road to Damascus

If you extrapolate those margins across states equally, there is still a GOP EC advantage. 

Biden would win by a bigger margin than Trump '16, but not a blowout.

Possibly still within the margin to try to steal via extra-legal wrangling.

BTW, I don't know what the Idiot in Chief thinks he's doing (think being the keyword), but giving the SCOTUS the big FY over DACA sounds like a really dumb idea. 

rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: There's no road to Damascus

Better go buy oil, and sell stocks.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: There's no road to Damascus

Down to nuts and bolts of the matter.

Gary Johnson was the most legitimate Libertarian candidate ever- a popular and successful Governor.

Jill Stein had got the Berniebro effect.

Evan McMullen pulled almost a percent- not that it mattered- mostly across inter-mountain Mormon country*.

The Libertarian and Green parties are in disarray- well- relatively- what Will Rogers said about Democrats applies there.

*Utah might be interesting and I think it is good that McMullin isn't running.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: There's no road to Damascus

There is no serious person anywhere who believes Trump can get 50% of the popular vote in a fair election.

Period.