cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
rsbs
Esteemed Advisor

Trump Courts the Black Vote..Laugh at your own risk

If Biden secures the Democratic nomination, it will be, in large part, because of the support of black voters. As strong as that support has been thus far, it will need to improve in the general election for him to have any chance of defeating the president.

President Trump continues to court black voters more aggressively than any other Republican presidential candidate in recent memory. Admittedly, the bar is low. The calculation of previous candidates appears to have been that, since Republicans rarely get more than 9–10 percent of the black vote (Trump got 8 percent in 2016), it didn’t make sense to expend significant campaign time and resources on the black electorate.

Some of us have been arguing for a long time that that’s a major blunder. A swing of just a few percentage points in the black vote would consign Democratic presidential prospects to those of Beto O’Rourke and Cory Booker.

Trump understands this. An increase of just 2 to 4 percentage points over his 2016 black vote total would solidify his hold on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and would help move Minnesota and Nevada into his electoral vote column.

A 2 to 4 percentage point move in the black vote is well within the realm of possibility. Trump is presiding over the best economic time for blacks in history, and not by a small margin. Not only is black unemployment at the lowest ever, but median household income is up — and the Trump campaign rightly points this out every chance it gets.

As opposed to previous Republican presidential candidates (and because the press has been loath to report it), Trump makes sure everyone knows blacks are benefiting from his policies. He also employs the power of imagery better than any president since Reagan. Trump’s State of the Union references to Opportunity Scholarship recipient Janiyah Davis, the promotion of 100 year-old Tuskegee airman Charles McKee to brigadier general, and his Super Bowl ad featuring Alice Johnson are but a few examples. In the last week, the Trump campaign opened more than a dozen community centers in black neighborhoods in cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Atlanta. Among other things, the centers sell “woke” Trump merchandise.

 

Trump’s efforts largely have been met with derision by Democrats, many of whom continue to behave as if the black vote is a permanent Democratic entitlement. Typical are CNN’s Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon, who’ve nearly collapsed with laughter ridiculing the community center outreach, not considering for a moment that, among other things, the “woke” initiative is trolling genius.

Van Jones, however, isn’t as amused. Immediately after the State of Union address, he warned Democrats about their complacency regarding the black vote. Recent polling data supports Jones’s warning. A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shows Trump’s approval rating among blacks at 22 percent, and a Zogby poll shows similar figures. Recent Emerson and Rasmussen polls have Trump approval at 34 percent. For Democrats, these figures should be accompanied by flashing red lights and sirens. Hillary Clinton got 92 percent of the black vote in 2016 and still lost. Sanders’s black support is tepid at best and comes mainly from notoriously unreliable younger voters. And Biden’s doesn’t appear any better than Clinton’s. The economy — if it remains anywhere near present levels — and Trump’s energetic effort to secure more of the black vote will make it difficult for either Sanders or Biden to replicate Clinton’s numbers.

 
 
3 Replies

Re: Trump Courts the Black Vote..Laugh at your own risk

Van the Man

Source with text is always appreciated, btw. 

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Trump Courts the Black Vote..Laugh at your own risk

I can't chip in with a great deal of first hand knowledge although I'm skeptical. I see it as more a matter of giving some of those wavering suburban white women who are squeamish about the racism thing an out.

I'll defer to our own Chief Black Correspondent if he'd care to expound to My Farmers what The Blacks might be thinking.

BTW, if there was a hypothetical bump of a few percent of black voters it would still be overwhelemed if black voters just turn out at close to the levels they did in '08 and '12.

rsbs
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Trump Courts the Black Vote..Laugh at your own risk

the hands down favorite for the VP post appears to be Kamala Harris, you know the one that even gay Barry had to say was easy on the eyes. A scarlet woman of mixed ethnicity would help balance dull Slow Joe against the more vibrant Trump and help with the African American vote, maybe. You just never know how these things play out, and what gaffes and scandals come out (you all probably have forgotten McCain's blunder). Trump appears to be trying to make California a state in play, and that would at least cement that big electoral vote for the bad guys. I believe Michelle Obama is definitely more in play for the VP spot, and Staci Abrams will appear to be considered and then rejected. No one likes to saddle up with a loser, and Market Weight is a sore loser too.

Trump is really gearing up to take MN.....I have never seen the party so active this early on and most of the state by area is a solid Trump supporting land mass. If Trump would siphon off 10 percent of the urban African American vote, he wins handily.  ( btw, Thanks Angry Mean Amy for what you did to Myon Burrell...if Trump wins, that is probably one of the key factors, and one reason why Mean Homely Ms. K is NOT going to be on a national ticket...she is kryptonite now...Thank God!) Even when Walter Mondale captured just one state ( Minnesota)  against Reagan, 75 percent of the MN counties voted for Reagan. Trump would love to outdo the gipper and appears to have a realistic shot.