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WCMO
Senior Advisor

What are the odds, pre-debates?

Helmut Norpoth’s model predicts a Trump landslide in the Electoral College.  Good track record without polling.

https://news.stonybrook.edu/facultystaff/maverick-modeller-helmut-norpoth-predicts-another-win-for-t...

 

FiveThirtyEight heavily favors Biden, but also heavily favored Hillary.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

Current "Consensus" says Biden.  This site has forecasts and links from several sources.

https://www.270towin.com/2020-election-forecast-predictions/

 

 

 

 

 

9 Replies
gh2002gh
Senior Contributor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

Pre-debates? What are the odds Hidden Biden shows up at a debate?

 

Polling has  not been accurate in decades.  It's there to make people believe the democrats theft is legitimate.  The US isn't as lost as they want you to believe.  

WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

LOL, yes, by "pre-debates", I really only meant as of now.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

The very best Dennison scenario is similar to '16- getting the popular vote narrow enough to somehow put together an electoral college win.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest the two most important factors in '16 are present- a very high protest vote and an unusually high number of undecideds going in.

While you will say this is different- and it may be- the overwhelming preponderence of evidence from elections since that day should bother you.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/09/25/thomas-b-edsalls-warnings-for-the-biden-campaign/  

 

snippet:

So, the number one problem Biden faces: “indications that Trump’s base of support — whites without college degrees — is more energized and committed to voting this year…”

How many of you were hearing that for the first time? How many of you believe that it’s the Biden voter that can’t wait to go vote? It’s Democrats, not Biden, ’cause Biden doesn’t have a connection. But the Democrats? Oh, they hate Trump so much! They’re so fed up with Trump, Mr. Orange Man, they just can’t stand it anymore!

They’re the ones who can’t wait to line up and vote, and yet Mr. Edsall says (paraphrased), “No, no, that’s not true. It’s the Republicans that have more enthusiasm,” and there’s no question in my mind that that’s true. You know why? For four years, the people who elected Donald Trump have had to listen to this drivel — and you know what it all is: He’s not qualified; his voters are stupid idiots, racists and bigots and all that — and they’re fed up with it.

They’re fed up with the attempts to run him out of office. They’re fed up with all the scandals that have been perpetrated. They’re fed up with Russia this, Russia that. They’re fed up of hearing Biden’s got the thing sewn up. They’re tired of hearing Biden in a landslide, like Hillary. They can’t wait to go out there and prove every damn one of you in the media wrong again. At the same time they can’t wait to go out there and save their country, and they really believe that that’s what Donald Trump is. Donald Trump will save this country from the American left. That equals enthusiasm.

Okay, the second of these five reasons that Biden should be worried, “Latinos, who are key to the outcome in several crucial states — Arizona and Florida, for example — have shown less support for Biden than for past Democratic nominees. Many Hispanic voters seem resistant to any campaign that defines them broadly as ‘people of color.'”

Did you know that? Did you know that Hispanics don’t like being considered people of color? Did you know that they don’t like being called people of color? And who does that?

That’s right. The left. The Democrats. Because that’s how they see everybody. Their skin color. Or their sexual gender. Or their orientation. That’s how they see people, first, second, third, and fourth. They don’t see who you are. They don’t care who you are.

The third reason Biden should be worried, “absentee voting is expected to be higher among Democrats than Republicans, subjecting their ballots to a greater risk of rejection.” Whoa. Wait a minute. I thought all this time we’re supposed to be voting early and often and mail-in ballots and absentee. Why? Well, because bad orange man’s gonna have a landslide win on election night. The left is being warned, if they watch election returns on election night, don’t get depressed because the early returns are gonna have Trump winning in a landslide.

But after they start counting the mail-in and absentee ballots, that’s when Biden is going to score the reverse landslide win. So now here comes Thomas B. Edsall. Nah, absentee voting, that’s not a reason to be happy. That’s a reason to be worried, if you’re Biden. Because Democrats do it more than Republicans. And that means their ballots are gonna be rejected more for irregularities or illegalities.

As Mr. Edsall says here, it’s “a fate more common to mailed-in votes than to in-person voting.” It’s another reason why I say flood the zone, just show up on Election Day and vote, I mean, like you have not done it before. There’s no substitute for it. It’s going to counter so many other attempts at vote fraud. There’s no substitute for showing up. I know some of you have to vote early and some of you have to vote absentee. But for those of you who don’t, showing up on Election Day, there’s no substitute for it, folks. I don’t care how long you have to wait. It’ll send the fear of God down these spines. The turnout alone will drive them nuts.

The fourth thing that Biden should be worried about, “the generic Democratic-Republican vote (‘Would you be more willing to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress?’) through early July favored Democrats by more than 10 points, but has since narrowed to 6 points.” And they’re losing ground on this generic question, are you more willing to vote Republican or Democrat. Meaning things are trending.

As time gets closer to the election, things are trending away from Biden, which is what happened to Hillary, which they have to see. See, I don’t believe that Biden has ever been going to win in a landslide. But the polling data’s all said. So they’ve gotta normalize it somehow, and they do it with this kind of stuff as we get closer to the election.

The fifth reason that Biden should be worried, the debates. “The debates will test Biden’s ability to withstand three 90-minute battles against an opponent known for brutal personal attacks.” Like Biden doesn’t know anything about that. Biden as a Democrat doesn’t know a thing about personal attacks. But Mr. Orange Man, that’s all he knows, that’s all he does. So Plugs and his team have gotta worry about showing up three times for 90 minutes and withstanding the withering personal insults from Mr. Orange Man.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

Haven't seen the polling that supports that.

It also matters where those pore, downtrodden uneducated white folks are. If they're in MS* or IN, it is irrelevant how many are energized. And I'm skeptical that there's a deep bench to come off the sidelines.

They don't appear as much or any more so that '16 in PA, WI, or MI, which matter.

I'll take the FOX OH poll as an outlier until there's more data, but if OH is in play, Dennison is in a world of trouble.

*Wouldn't hold my breath but Mike Espy is in a statistical dead heat for the Senate there.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

What should bother you is now the dems say their voters are no smart enough to fill out a mail in ballot.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

How do you poll accurately these days? A year out from election, 6 months, a month and a week.   I don`t see voters, especially in this election saying "I have a tough time deciding between Trump and Biden" ...you could`ve had a tough time deciding between Bob Dole and Bill Clinton, but the parties are more black and white these days, no pun intended. 

I don`t know who`ll win or by how much, but i guarantee you, the final poll at the ballot box will not match any of the polling prior...oh I know + or -3% margin of error  What I find is answering a poll many times is a ploy to get you to donate money after you`ve bore your heart and soul answering "20 questions" so i avoid polls and i`m sure many others do as well, only the gullible koolaide drinkers waste the time, that skews it.  Of course if the poll is in your favor, perhaps there`s small benefit in touting "my guy has 80% chance of winning!!" to drive down enthusiasm on the other side.

WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

The "protest" vote this time would be due to Biden's clearly diminished mental capacity (and he started on a subpar level), the apparent Democratic and Deep State coup, the extent of socialistic policies clearly favored by everyone in the Democratic debates, the relentless badgering of the current President, the idiocy of Schumer, Pelosi, Schiff and Nadler, etc.

WCMO
Senior Advisor

Re: What are the odds, pre-debates?

I rarely respond to polling calls and rarely answer calls from unrecognized numbers, but if I do answer the phone, there's minimal truth in my responses.  Polling texts are more interesting, though my responses probably don't get counted as anything since I never answer directly and usually request that they remove my phone number from their database.

I got a polling call maybe a week ago, from an unidentified number -- I answered for no apparent reason -- as soon as they began and I figured out what the call was about, I simply asked what number they were calling from, and they responded that they didn't know -- I hung up.  I'm not sure it's legal for them to call from unidentified numbers, but can't really report them without the number.