A recession under a Republican president occurs after two consecutive (correction: quarters) xxxmonthsxxx of negative GDP growth. An inversion of the 2 year/10 year treasury curve is also considered a strong indicator of a recession’s onset.*
A recession under a Democratic president, of course, is a much more nuanced and complicated matter indeed. Trust the experts on this folks. It sounds confusing, but it is just different.
[File under: When caught in a blatant act of in flagrante delicto, try very hard to not insult your uninvited viewers by swearing to them that what they are seeing with their own eyes is just not really what it seems to be.]
*Current inversion rate is 2.9% for 2 year US Treasuries/2.66% for 10 year US Treasuries. Note: Under ordinary economic circumstances, the longer held 10 year Treasury tends to be higher than the 2 year Treasury.
