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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Your dear leader may still be winning

That is what this article says contrary to what the polls are showing.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/trump-may-still-be-winning/

Both the New York Times and the polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight currently calculate that the odds Donald Trump will be re-elected President of the United States are 3 in 10. These and other election models have an intrinsic flaw which means they significantly underestimate the likelihood Trump will win: They all assume a free and fair election. It is already clear this is not happening.

The President, the Republican Party, and his supporters are energetically tipping the scales in Trump’s favour several different ways. One example that has received a lot of media attention is his effort to slow down the mail. Trump has openly admitted that by blocking funding he hopes to prevent the Post Office from being able to manage the expected surge of mail-in votes. This significantly disadvantages the Biden campaign as Democrats are twice as likely to vote by mail than Republicans.

........

Then, of course, there is the foreign interference. A bipartisan Senate report released in August provides yet more confirmation that Russian intelligence interfered in the 2016 election, and that the Trump campaign welcomed that support. Recently, the office of the President’s own Director of National Intelligence also warned that Russia is repeating those efforts and is once again working to influence the election in Trump’s favour, using “covert and overt influence measures,” including social media campaigns and the planting of fake stories, to increase discord and sway voters.

......

One of the peculiarities of the American electoral system is that it does not have a mechanism to resolve a situation where both sides claim victory. In a recent bipartisan war game exercise held at Georgetown School of Law, conducted by 67 former party and government officials and dubbed the “Transition Integrity Project,” the Trump team took advantage of that and the fact that Democrat voters are more likely to use mail-in ballots which are often counted last. In that scenario, Trump declared victory early on election night, used state Republican officials to force counting to stop, as they did successfully in Florida in the Bush vs Gore election of 2000, and then had the Republican-led state legislatures certify the early returns. The result was Trump was re-elected in spite of actually losing the mock election.

 

9 Replies
Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

(...polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight currently calculate that the odds Donald Trump will be re-elected President of the United States are 3 in 10.)

Interesting that on the day of the 2016 election 538 had Trump's chances of winning the 2016 election at 29%, guess Nate thinks he better increase Trump's chances this time around and go with 30%.

Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

No comment about the article?

Afraid to think about what  the author was saying?

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

So "Biden`s gonna a win!! 100 million to one!"  aaaand "Russia`s gonna interfere again!!!", sounds like Biden`s gonna win by hook or by crook.  

So, people "like me" that like guns, closed border, rule of law, getting tough on unfair trade are some how possibly going to be "tricked again by Russian ads on Facebook"???   I`m not on Facebook, but watching the mainstream news they try to sway my vote over to Biden,  newspeople that report information are pro-communist.

snip:

using “covert and overt influence measures,” including social media campaigns and the planting of fake stories, to increase discord and sway voters.

rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

BA, anyone that relies on a traditional AP sourced newspaper, or a radio show with a national news feed, should be voting for Biden and against the dictator based on what they are fed. I do not believe I have heard or read an unbiased article in the last four years.

You would think we were living in Germany, in 1940, based on the news reporting bias. If, and it is an IF, Trump wins again, it will show the value of social media such as facebook and word of mouth. It is an uphill battle against a media in communist control.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

Red, on our local news this morning it falshed at the bottom of the screen "Trump dwells on protests while Biden focuses on school safety"   Any high school freshman in Journalism class should immediately spot the bias reporting there, but we are bombarded with dozens of similar reports every day.  I recall picking apart ads in that class of "Tide gets your clothes 40% cleaner" we were taught to ask "cleaner than what?  Cleaner than rubbing dirt on your clothes?"  Apparently journalism these days teaches to do the polar opposite.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

(No comment about the article?          Afraid to think about what  the author was saying?)

On macleans or any liberal liberal opinion piece? not usually but I guess I can:  

1st paragraph, 538 was a disaster predicting the 2016 election, this time they are going the same way and this liberal rag is already making excuses for another failure by opining that the election is rigged - but only rigged if trump wins.

2nd paragraph, another conspiracy about trump on the post office with the intent if biden loses to pout like hillary and file lawsuits.

3rd paragraph, russia, russia, russia, why wouldn't a liberal opinion rag throw that at the wall again.  Russia planted an anti-biden fake story on a social media site, some moron read this story on a social media site and believes it, russia interfered in the election on trump's behalf.  China planted an anti-trump fake story on a social media site, some moron read this story on a social media site and believes it, china just rooting for biden. 

4th paragraph, really more of the same garbage, trump illegally wins election, it's not fair because democrats, 90% of the media and 99% of hollywood was for biden so we need to investigate for 4 more years instead of doing the work of the American people.

So to sum it up, this opinion and belief piece says trump may still be winning but he has to be because of cheating; and conspiring with russia, if he is or does so - got it.  Heard it all many time before from other liberal rags and people like leaker schifty magoo, will continue hearing the same dribble going forward. Hope this helps canuck.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

The way to win an election in canada is to wear black face as often as possible.

Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

I see you ignored the Senate report recently (included Republicans) that confirmed Russian interference in 2016 and how they are continuing to interfere in this years election.

No comment on the lack of funds to carry out the election in an efficient way and cutting post service to slow down mail.

I think you have put on blinders that only allow you to believe instead of accept evidence.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Your dear leader may still be winning

The mueller investigation was not about interference. The mueller investigation was about collusion. The interference took place on Obama's watch and was supported by the DNC.