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Senior Advisor

a game of small numbers

not too many people change.

Breaking down Biden outperforming Clinton by about 6% nationally (that's conservative by some estimates).

1% of DD's '16 support has moved on to Boot Hill, net.

1% (net) are flipping because of the 5th Ave mass murder etc.

1% net are coming back to Biden after casting a throwaway in '16 out of distaste for Clinton.

3% net probably- people who didn't vote at all in '16 whether too young or not interested.

D's need to worry about anything closer than about 4%.

5 Replies
bruce MN

Off to a decent start

This guy the 1st on site voter in the country at Dixville Notch

Senior Advisor

Re: Off to a decent start

They went 4-2 for Clinton in '16.

Apparently the other Republican died.

All generally consistent with my premise, if not proportional.

Senior Advisor

Re: a game of small numbers

Probably going to be 35-40M votes from people who didn't vote in '16.

I can't find any suggestion that there are near that many working class and poor white folks who weren't previously engaged.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Off to a decent start

A “GREAT” walk away from Trump!!!!   Thanks for the post!


Senior Contributor

Re: Off to a decent start

If anyone knows about politics and small numbers, it would be democrats in 2020.  

What are you going to do when the fraud fails?