a game of small numbers
not too many people change.
Breaking down Biden outperforming Clinton by about 6% nationally (that's conservative by some estimates).
1% of DD's '16 support has moved on to Boot Hill, net.
1% (net) are flipping because of the 5th Ave mass murder etc.
1% net are coming back to Biden after casting a throwaway in '16 out of distaste for Clinton.
3% net probably- people who didn't vote at all in '16 whether too young or not interested.
D's need to worry about anything closer than about 4%.
Re: a game of small numbers
Probably going to be 35-40M votes from people who didn't vote in '16.
I can't find any suggestion that there are near that many working class and poor white folks who weren't previously engaged.