a real life experiment in progress

[sdholloway56]

The accelerating infection curve in places where vaccination rates are low and the Delta variant is well seeded looks identical to when the native strain was hitting a naive population.

There are 10M unvaccinated in FLA. Best guess is that maybe 2M of them have been infected previously.

I assume the only thing that will keep it from infecting several million is if people get scared enough that they voluntarily change their behavior, or get vaccinated.

Having no capacity to change anything, I'll just watch.

Although the implied mortality rate thus far does look ominous. However, FLA stopped counting positive tests so nobody really knows how many cases there really are. Well, somebody knows, but they aren't telling.

Some small number of vaccinated people will also get sick and die. Small percentage wise, or Just a Statistic.

[sdholloway56]

The curve wouldn't be identical.

But if a variant with an R0 2.8X the native strain is hitting a population that is 40% naive it apparently produces a reasonable simulacrum thereof.

[sdholloway56]

Might actually be closer to 30% of the unvaccinated previously infected.

Whatever it is, it isn't enough in combination with vaccination levels to slow the curve.

[rickgthf]

There's no evidence yet that people previously infected with wild-type are protected from Delta.  There is evidence that some people with mild infections have low titers of antibodies.  There was a reason trump got vaccinated despite almost dying from Covid.

[jennys_mn]

What a shame - to get Covid when there is a vaccine.    Getting “well” doesn’t mean just surviving the illness.   You may well have to also survive it’s lingering effects, long after the  virus battle is won.   Too bad - when there was something to help, but people are so stupid, that they listen to Bass Tards like we have here, and decide it is better to give up your life to Covid, than it is to get protected, and help “not my president” achieve a goal. 

Our country is so broken - and CV19 will do, what even fighting forever in Afghanistan couldn’t….break this country, sooner or later.

Jen

[jennys_mn]

But, it’s no wonder they won’t touch a vaccine created under the Bass Tard Trump so called administration.  They know that

ETTD……

Jen

[sdholloway56]

I wouldn’t guarantee anyone who’s been previously been infected that they have immunity from Delta, but that does appear to be the case.

Of course the risks of getting vaccinated- at least one shot- are so vanishingly small that there’s little reason not to.

[sdholloway56]

Except, of course to show obedience to the cult.

[sdholloway56]

I’m not suggesting equivalency between full vaccination and any and all previous infections.

Merely anticipating the yeah buhwhatabouts.

Regardless, whatever it is in FLA it is quite obviously insufficient.