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Advisor

Re: a wild speculation

Interesting read here   http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/earth/cause-ice-age.html    What do ya think if the author is correct Bart?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve


@hardnox wrote:

Partly on the back of a half $T or so of "private" capital quickly heading off to the place where money goes to die.

 

We need fossil fuels as the bridge to building a system where we aren't as reliant on them. EROEI isn't extrememly high on the alternatives and you need energy input to get to energy output. But I suspect that along the way we'll see this pattern play out several more times- prices rise enough to bring high cost projects on line and then production rises/demand drops and the rug gets pulled. Production slowly drops and you do it again. Capital destruction on a vast scale.

 

That's what happens when you've built a world where there is no present alternative, and quite honestly there is no good alternative to good old fashioned high EROEI oil but unfortunately that stuff is running out. It was finite.

 

 

 

 

 

 


The market will bring alternatives to the market place when they become competitive.

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Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve

You've obviously got a real feel for how railroads, organized public safety, airports and freeways came to be.

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve


@bruce MN wrote:

You've obviously got a real feel for how railroads, organized public safety, airports and freeways came to be.

 

 


And today we can't even lay a simple pipeline.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: a wild speculation

I think there has been a lot of NEW research in the last 18 yrs.  No one disputes the cycles of weather and warming and cooling of the earth.  But what people do say is that many of man's activities that have come into being in the last 100 - 125 yrs. and do influence the severity and extreme changes in the weather due to the oceans getting warmer.  You do know what makes hurricanes a level 4 or 5 rather than a 1or 2 right? Now my question to you is what if he was wrong in 1997 when he published that article?

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Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve

Therein lies the conundrum. There is nothing nearly so good as the old cheap to extract high EROEI oil but it is in sharp decline.

 

I suppose we will drive past the Last Chance gas station because the price is too high and off into Death Valley.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve


@hardnox wrote:

Therein lies the conundrum. There is nothing nearly so good as the old cheap to extract high EROEI oil but it is in sharp decline.

 

I suppose we will drive past the Last Chance gas station because the price is too high and off into Death Valley.


So now we must force the working poor to choose between rent or the utility bill because you just know.

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Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve

Your compassion knows no bounds.

 

There hasn't been a supergiant field discovered since the 60s. At least 4 of the 5 have peaked and are in decline.

 

All oil is finite, the cheap and easy stuff even more so. And I do just know that, as much as you can know anything.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Cantarell decline curve


@hardnox wrote:

Your compassion knows no bounds.

 

There hasn't been a supergiant field discovered since the 60s. At least 4 of the 5 have peaked and are in decline.

 

All oil is finite, the cheap and easy stuff even more so. And I do just know that, as much as you can know anything.


Then we shopuld leverage what we have, add massive debt to purchase what we don't need. That'll grow the economy.