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sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

an interesting political question

so if GDP craters through Q2 but recovers half of the loss by the end of the year, is there a "getting better" political story? Still show higher unemployment than at the peak of the GFC. My take- we're going to have to print a lot more money to get that, and probably will.

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9 Replies
sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

16% unemployment in Q3 is still ultra brutal and you only got 5 weeks until the election.

I doubt it, but might be like '92 where the (yes, overhyped, mild recession) was already over by the election but people still felt surly.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/04/24/is-out-of-control-spending-souring-trump-supporters/   

 

snip:

You spend more than you take in, more than you have. The national debt kept rising, and for all of our lifetimes… I don’t know about you, but my parents and grandparents warned me the national debt was single-handedly gonna destroy the country. And my whole life, it hasn’t — that we know of. But certainly not in the ways that I and my brother were warned by our parents and grandparents.

So then during the Obama years, we started printing money like crazy. We started calling it “quantitative easing.” It happened, and it was money that was sent in a circuitous way to Wall Street. It was used to shore up securities and (sigh) make sure that people that had a second house in the Hamptons wouldn’t have to sell it during a crash.

That didn’t seem to do any harm, and that didn’t seem to take money out of the private sector. There was no limitation on how much you can borrow. The theory has always been that the more money government borrows, the less there is for the private sector. But banks were still lending money; interest rates were reasonable; in some cases, coming down.

So a lot of theory didn’t seem to hold up, and people were scratching their heads. Trump started… I don’t remember specifics. I just know that there was a lot of federal spending going on. Now, let’s jump forward to this. Do you realize $6 trillion — well, let’s say $2.2 trillion and then a couple of four or five hundred billions, and by the time it’s all finished it will be around $6 trillion.

We’ve taken the national debt from $20 trillion to $25 trillion here, all to combat a virus, all to pay people not to work. Still, I know and you know a lot of people that haven’t gotten any of their small business loan money. Maybe you’re one that hasn’t. You wonder, “Where’s the money going?” and then you see a headline in the news: “Billionaires’ Wealth Expanding During Virus.”

You say, “How the hell can that be?” Well, there are reasons for it. But there just doesn’t seem to be any limit, regardless what it’s for. Forget for a moment that the Democrats are loading up in this emergency spending a bunch of stuff that’s got nothing to do with it, and you’re upset with Trump for signing it when you expected him to stand up to it.

Hey, he is not going to be the one responsible for the money not getting out. There’s no way it’s gonna happen. So whatever’s in it, he’s gonna sign it. Just like he did. He signed another $454 billion today, and you ask, “Where’s it coming from?” We’re printing it or we’re borrowing it. Trump’s like to say, “We’re borrowing it at no interest.”

It clearly isn’t a concern, and it’s not gonna be a concern for whoever the next president is. We’re free to spend the money. What worries me about it — among many other things — is look what we’re doing. We are inadvertently (or maybe advertently) fulfilling one of the assertions that big leftist-socialists make.

 

And that is we can, with government spending, keep people fed while they don’t have to work. Meaning we can create this utopia. The Democrats are looking forward to nuking the idea that you have to work to have a lifestyle. Now, the fact of the matter is the government can’t pay what people can earn themselves, but it can pay enough people.

I mean, minimum wage is 15 bucks, right?

Let’s just say it is. The government is giving away far more than the minimum wage right now to people. So when this ends, what would you prefer if you’re a minimum wage earner and you’re being paid $52,000 to $55,000 during the coronavirus here not to work, to make sure you stay at home and to make sure you have food? Now it’s over and you gotta go back to work at 15 bucks an hour.

What are you gonna choose?

So there’s a lot of sociological things happening here in the midst of this that portend things we’re gonna have to overcome again, education, information programs are gonna have overcome again with people. It’s gonna be hard. How are you gonna tell people government can’t support you? “Well, they just did for a year, Rush.” For however long this goes on. “What do you mean the government can’t support? The government just did for six months, Rush. During the coronavirus shutdown, I didn’t want for anything. I didn’t have to work, Rush. What do you mean the government can’t do it?”

Well, the government’s gonna eventually run out of money. “No, they won’t Rush. They’ll just print some.” It’s gonna be a real tough educational objective, if people in the Republican Party even care to try again. Or will it be, “Okay, we’re gonna throw the towel in, okay, spending is part of American life now, and there’s no limit to what government can spend.”

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

Everyone will stay fat and happy until they go for their curb side pickup and the clerk says sorry we don't have any. No one is working to make any. Next time you call there won't be anyone here to answer. Have a great day.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

This unemployment deal and the $600/week add on have the devil`s wheels turning in everyone`s minds that "Hey, if I get furloughed, I can make MORE than going to work!".   Trump is on a Keynesian roll...and I don`t blame him, every past GOP POTUS that tried to tap the brakes a little on spending was painted as "starving kids! and grandma eating dog food!", spending is what you have to do to stay in political power these days.  I guess push comes to shove, I`d rather have the drunken sailor spender that let`s me keep my guns and keeps Mexicans out rather than the drunken sailor that wants to take my guns and let more Mexicans in...TRUMP  2020!   MAGA! 

But the "Greatest Generation" would`ve dealt with the Corona scare much differently, first of all we wouldn`t have drug in all these foreigners that brought the sickness to our shores.  Then the Greatest Generation wouldn`t have shutdown,  they would`ve worn masks, kept clean, social distanced until all traces of the sickness was gone and to fund any extra expense "Covid 19 bonds" would`ve be sold instead of printing money.   But that was then, this is now. 

rsbs
Esteemed Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

yup, this episode is not going to end well...the Friday the 13th movies, and the Nightmare movies will seem like good family fare compared to what is coming when the crapola hits the fan.

Best case is to grab what you can, and position yourself to survive in a high tax, low income environment.

I pity those on fixed incomes going forward as a dollar is going to be like a dime when it comes to spending power.

Going to make the property confiscation schemes of Warren and AOC and Sanders gain traction...no wonder that doofus loves those three so much. If you hate private ownership of property, you can love those three.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

If Democrats do well this November, I don`t know if they`ll flip a switch and declare the Corona hoax over or if they`ll keep it going as a vehicle for their socialist agenda?  Actually keeping it going could win over some conservatives, after all who doesn`t like "mailbox money"?  I do. 

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

If the dems get control it will be vote by mail, there won't be an election day, it will be an election until the dems harvest enough ballots and the communist conversion will be complete.

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

You guys better spend your Stormy Bux on a lot more guns.

rsbs
Esteemed Advisor

Re: an interesting political question

nutz, I bet you are glad that you spent all of your money during your life so you no longer have to worry about private property rights.

bet your kids are proud of you, too.