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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

dang lyin' sine-tiss

got it a little wrong, apparently, as did I in following their concensus.

The worst case in the race between the vaccines and variants appears to be a narrow victory for vaccines. While the B117 got out of control in a few places where it was well seeded and there was GQP forced relaxation of mitigation, it certainly looks like the worst has passed.

We'll probably see daily deaths of a few hundred* for quite some time but soon most of those will just be suicides.

I'm saying June 1.

*which would still be far worse than any flu epidemic since 1918-19.

 

4 Replies
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: It ain't over, 'til it's over.

A few weeks ago I was more optimistic than I am today.   As you pointed out a few days ago, there are serious hotspots all along the northern tier, rural Maine, New Hampshire, Michigan, northern Minnesota, Colorado, Washington State, Oregon.  Variant screening indicates that half of the cases are B.1.1.7 now, far more infectious and far more likely to send younger people to the hospital.  Half of all hospital cases are younger than 40, more and more are children.  As children go back to full-time in-person school, the virus is surging in school-aged children.

  What we have here is almost another whole epidemic, with a new target population.

   And a full 30% of the population can't be persuaded to get vaccinated, an unfortunate trump legacy.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: It ain't over, 'til it's over.

I think there will be hotspots- particularly in the areas of low vaccination in the South as AC season gets rolling, and up into the lower MW later, probably.

But I think the gross number will stay relatively in check.

For the vaccinated, I think we can head out on June 1 with confidence that we'll only be contributing (and only ever so slightly) to the deaths of people with a suicide wish.

I already did my time on the Suicide Hotline and it didn't work.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: It ain't over, 'til it's over.

FLA could get interesting.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: It ain't over, 'til it's over.

There is some risk, both personal and moral- spreading the stuff.

But 1/1000 is quite a lot better odds, and well worth the risk.

I assume if anything changes- like a variant that is spreading and breaking through immunity- we'll have plenty of lead time from the dang sine-tiss.