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Advisor

insider selling

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/26/investing/stock-market-insider-selling/index.html

CNN fake news, but anyway.

Doesn't have to be a recession- "the market" is priced for that perpetual 3%+ growth and will have to adjust if that's not happening. 

Insiders would also be aware that internal buyback cash is starting to be used up.

3 Replies
Advisor

Re: insider selling

just like with farmland....the supply of $15k to $20k per acre sales left the station a long time ago....the $10 to $12K sales are in the rear view mirror.....saw a prime iowa sale at $9k reported, but more typical seems to be $6k .

With $3 corn, it takes a lot of bushels to pay off $6000 too....might see some $4k sales in a couple of years once that pool of money and buyers dries up, too.

the wild card is hyper-inflation...then all bets are off.

Advisor

Re: insider selling

The Occam's Razor view would suggest more of the chronic Japanese disease- sluggish growth, a huge debt overhang and ultra-low interest rates.

A reflexive fear of inflation probably is the greater risk- the German disease.

Advisor

Re: insider selling

actually, when you factor in 3 percent per year monetary inflation as a base, six thousand dollar per acre land, with $3 per bushel corn and 200 bushel yields, probably is an equilibrium figure. Half of the value in an acre of land can be attributed to its function as an inflation hedge. 

Guess I better go bid on that nice quarter down the road after all!  But then you have those pesky voters voting school levies that they want the farmers to pay for......Guess not.