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Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Hi Bruce,

 

First I'd intended to go back and comment on the Denninger/Kunstler dustup of a couple weeks ago but never got around to it.

 

Kunstler's appeal is half literary and half political so I don't expect it to appeal to everyone. And among other things his elitist disdain for most of what constitutes American uber culture is sure to be offputting to a lot of people and I understand that- not going to defend him.

 

But even though Denninger has gotten it better than most, does he really tink it is germain that he can afford to pay $9/gal for gas for his Suburban. Of course that assumes that his income stream is unaffected by the fact that most can't, that banks  hold loans and leases on other Suburbans that will be turned in as a tiny portion of the accelerating pile of debt that goes bad if oil goes to $9.

 

I've not figured out how oil  cornucopianism became a "conservative" position. The US is the best explored and exploited oil region of the globe and is in production decline. The only way to possibly make anything a higher national priority would be to do something really insane like create an artificial debt crisis (groan).

 

I'm a boomer but of a later cohort (b. 1956) so I claim some indulgence for having mostly been a youthful observer of the 60s. But anyway, we were adults in the '90s and have to share the responsibility for this debacle- the 90s were wide open for fixing demographic and energy problems that loomed. Instead we went almost 100% in the wrong direction- promoted asset inflation over savings, tied wealth to higlky leveraged suburban sprawl etc. I have the deepest contempt for both sides of the boomer divide- the Newts and the Hill/Bills.

 

Interesting thing about the two sides of the wars that I describe above is that there are no legitimate leftists- only corporate opportunists who hijacked that side of the debate.

 

Anyway as to the current piece. You have two sides in debate- the liquidationists who believe that intervention will only make things worse and we need to take our medicine versus what I'll call the neoliberals who think we can at least ameliorate the effects of deleveraging. I'm not optimistic that this is the case (not sure that politics can hold together through 15-20 years of people getting progresively poorer) but also don't share the religious belief that the "invisible hand" of the free market will put things back together somewhat painlessly- not when the thing is being dropped from 50,000 feet.

 

So yeah, guess we're screwed.

 

Best, h

 

 

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Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Putting on my market hat, I agree with Prechter that we're likely to see optimism break out at each horizontal portion of the stairsteps down. He says all the way until about 2012 or thereabouts.

 

Optimism breaks out, markets try to rally and then, kerplunk, another step down.

 

Not until after that do you see the "oh #$%^" portion of the decline.  A lifetime of optimism and belief in exceptionalism isn't unlearned easily.

 

That, I suppose, is one argument for liquidationism- just get it over without the cruelty. But that isn't the way things work.

 

Best, h

 

 

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Advisor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Re; that...from one of the people who hasn't been wrong about much of this so far:

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3874e80-82e8-11df-8b15-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

"I have the deepest contempt for both sides of the boomer divide- the Newts and the Hill/Bills.

 

Interesting thing about the two sides of the wars that I describe above is that there are no legitimate leftists- only corporate opportunists who hijacked that side of the debate."

 

 

Couldn't have said it anywhere near as well. On the nuts.

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Honored Advisor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Some of the gloom and doom we read doesn`t matchup with real life. If you go to Coral Ridge mall in Mankato, it`s usally packed, impossibly so on the weekends. Even in a slow Christmas shopping season, one had to be nuts to go near that mall between Thanksgiving and New Years. Drive on Interstate 35 on a friday afternoon and it`s bumper to bumper of $50k duallies pulling $$???  boats and campers somewhere. How many more shoppers do these malls expect or for that matter physically fit into their mall?  How many more campers and boats will fit on I-35 on the weekend? These folks are `winners of life`s lottery`, beneficiaries of taxcuts. My take is the economy is being talked down. The Bush taxcuts will expire, Obama will have a big wad to spike the economy just before the 2012 elections. The media will cooperate with Obama`s funny business just to get him in a very scary 2nd term.

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Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Yup. It's a lefty conspiracy to keep people out of the malls and seperate them from the duallies and jetskis that God intended for them to have.

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Senior Contributor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

I only hope that someone comes along and gives us few readers here a 6 mo window to get all important life saving duties completed before the end times. Right now the way the world is buying the freshly printed dollars over all other currencies it appears the good times will last quite a bit longer, like years,  to me. The biggest wild card for farmers is world commodity prices. The conventional thinking inflated dollars mean much higher commodity prices that will help cash flow all the seriously inflated higher priced land, rents, imputs, iron...........But, the past week has seen grain slipping dangerously close to below break even given the inflation we all have had to pay out. So, if the world is awash with all this dam dollar money, why don't they pay up for farm commodities?

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Advisor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

Coral Ridge in Mankato? Isn't that in Iowa City or thereabouts?

 

The big mall at Mankato is River Hills. 3, actually, big to end it all malls developed in Mankato in my lifetime...Madison East Mall, then the covering up of a piece of the main retail drag downtown for the down town mall in response to that. And then the monstrous River Hills complex, which is having a tough time of it with the Mall of America so alluring and only an hour and 15 minutes or so away. All of those, with the exception of the original downtown retail businesses and retail buinesses in the surrounding area, created with the help of tax abatments and cheapo utility and TIF agreements from local government, with the State's blessing.

 

And there are dozens of small towns within an hour of Mankato where you can't buy a pair of pants, a dress or a pair of shoes.

 

Got'yer 235 years of  progess right there.

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Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

The amount of money (credit) being created is miniscule compared to the amount of money (credit) at risk of imminent destruction.

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Senior Contributor

Re: nox, Sam......either way you look at it...toast.

WOAH!! I don't like your choice of words Noxie!   "imminent distruction"  Why not prefix the word "possible". There is always a chance ya know.