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hardnox
Advisor

odds of 25th Amendment removal increase

Even as the RW propaganda machine prepares for Mueller's removal by trashing the FBI and promoting Clinton scandals for the purpose of deflection, all is not well.

 

The recognition that Trump doesn't have political coattails is creeping up on a lot of the GOP. After all, he only got 46% of the popular vote and his popularity never rose above that in a honeymoon period- and is now mired in the high/middle 30s. The composite will likely make new lows in the next couple of weeks.

 

Although, apparently the GOP is also unaware that their tax bill is even more unpopular than Trump.

 

Pence is basically a modern establishment Republican with an extra dose of religion thrown in. I don't think either move will save the GOP from a disaster of their own making but do think that perhaps we'd be a bit safer with Pence as the placeholder until '20.

23 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: odds of 25th Amendment removal increase

and should Pence and the GOP actually provide some decent governance that wouldn't be a bad thing. In fact you'd assume that if they were able to stave off disaster in '18 it would probably be due to some positive governance, not "energizing the base."

 

Although I'm pretty certain that the GOP and Christian brands are now pretty seriously tarnished, particularly among the younger voters who are entering the electorate at 5M/yr while 2.5M exit on the other end.

 

That probably provides a D gain of about 1.5% a year on the generic ballot where D's are already holding an 8-12% advantage (thinking is that gerrymandering, suppression and geography give R's a natural advantage of about +4).

 

 

 

 

hardnox
Advisor

Jerry Ford

different, but similar in some ways.

 

It is hard to imagine that Pence could be a legitimate candidate going forward by contending that after accepting Trump's offer to be his running mate and working with him for over a year that he was simply shocked to find that he was mentally and/or psychologically incapable of doing the job.

 

Although in some ways the same will keep a large portion of the Trump Base locked in as they would be incapable of admitting the same.

Katzenjammer12
Senior Contributor

Re: Jerry Ford

I think you'd better check your eggs before you count your chickens.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

Indeed.

 

Better bet is that unless Trump's popularity falls under 30%* the arsonists will be busy burning every bridge before Jan '19- after passing the tax bill that has 26% popularity they'll move on to "entitlement reform" which will be even less popular.

 

Since there are a few dozen jobs in lobbying or think tanks for every seat in congress the 100 or so who get turned out won't lack for employment opportunities.

 

*that would require a substantial portion of The Base who he is screwing to recognize it. Unlikely, because they're just mad.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

So then it's not that Trump is mentally unstable. You just don't like his policies so you come up with another way to over turn an election. An insurance policy so to speak. A plan b.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

I think that fact is very well understood among the GOP caucus.

 

They're all just triangulating as to their own personal interests.

 

My speculations were merely about if and when they decide that his unpopularity is great enough that the risk/reward calculation shifts.

 

If you're Death Ferret Paul Ryan it is probably more important to realize a lifelong dream to destroy America in the Randian* vision and then move along if necessary.

 

*the leading anti-Christian popular philosopher of our recent past. I get a headache trying to understand all of this.

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

Your cause would be easier to. Realize if Comey, Mueller And Rosenstein hadn’t been life long Republicans 

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

Exactly! The war is with those pesky establishment Republicans.

 

Hey, I have an idea. Let's you n' him fight.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Jerry Ford

UUMMM wasn't Mueller head of the FBI when Bush dropped the twin towers and lied us into iraq?