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Senior Advisor

should be an easy crowd

for the assertion that the gubmint sometimes lies with their statistics.

I did tip you, just yesterday, about the suspicious trend of boffo headline economic numbers followed by quiet, subsequent downward revisions. In fairness, those revised numbers don't portray a terrible economy, just one that's kinda Obama-ish, tax cut or no.

But like USDA if they were actually following an agenda, that's a dangerous game because eventually you end up somewhere way off in the weeds and can't find your way back.

As far as these economic  headline numbers go, Wall Street reacts deliriously to each and every one except on occasions where they might be deemed too good and might delay more rate cuts. Revisions, what revisions?

Anyway, my conclusion is this: a recession is not currently imminent, the economy is OK, but the stock market is priced for the illusory Trump economy, not the real one.

And just like the fact that an elevated market creates a real and a confidence based tailwind, the opposite applies.

Thus, mess with the numbers at your own peril.

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Senior Advisor

Re: should be an easy crowd

Further I'd note that the volatility of the last 20 months isn't a bug, it's a feature.

Once the market quickly priced in the tax cuts- more the direct impact of the corporate cut- but to a lesser degree the belief in the stimulative effect- that was about it.

Now we have a situation where Life and Annuity companies are wrapped in a web of $2T in derivatives, primarily with 5 mega-banks as counter parties. The biggest bonuses at those banks last year went to equity derivative traders. Ergo, they're able to play those positions to their substantial profit.

That's a lesson that I learned from my relatively brief sojourn in the goldbug community- that's exactly what the banks did with gold derivatives. The rampant conspiracy theories about that weren't entirely baseless, just naive.