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sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

staggering folly

Let's suppose that this morning begins a second 3 gap down leg of an ABC type correction to around 7K in the Naz Comp.

That would just take it down to a long term trendline and still well above where it was at the beginning of this administration.

The problem is that they way it gets there is about 10X more destructive than the artificial ramp to silly levels was positive.

RIP The Reality TV Market.

4 Replies
sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: staggering folly

Somewhat analogous to when Clinton was an impeached lame duck and he and Greenspan let the dot-com bubble run to dangerous levels.

People mis-remember events- it was common to hear people lament that their 401ks were doing well until 9/11 and whocouldathunkit? Actually the bubble had popped in 2000 and we were heading into a bear market and recession by 2001.

Then we ramped up a huge amount of war spending, cut rates to near zero which was the underpinning of the housing bubble and produced a modest recovery into '08.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: staggering folly

So, what if we get the recession/depression that you and Bill Maher want, but president Trump is re elected out of the understanding that Covid-19 was not a US creation?

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: staggering folly

Even if your fever dreams that this event is the beginning of the end for globalization come to fruition, the withdrawal symptoms are going to be worse than heroin.

And I doubt that the US taxpayer will be all that interested in cushioning agriculture's part of that adjustment.

 

 

 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: staggering folly

The debt bomb is going to occur at some point, regardless who`s in the White House, then we will "print", someone gets a haircut...time`ll tell.  With Dow dropping 1800 pts and trading halted, how enthused are you about open borders, reparations and free college for illegal aliens? 

I don`t know if agriculture will be bailed out if "Rome" is falling, however perhaps a year or 2 down the road, surpluses will be gone and a "farm crisis" on top of everything else will make a bad situation worse.

The reaction to Covid-19 (which may be ancient history a year from now) could be all it took for TEOTWAWKI.