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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

stock market

"Stocks Rise on Hopes of a Coronavirus Treatment" lol

Fed funny money and the WS sell side machine manufacture a rally, which then drives the headlines. Gotta say something.

As previously noted, Naz100/SP500 ratio is at DotCom 2000 levels. Everybody is trying to hide in big tech, thinking it is the safest. Last time it went on longer and farther than you could imagine before it collapsed.

If 90% of the SP is crap, and the market thinks so, then most of big tech isn't going to print money either.

8 Replies
jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: stock market

I’ve been looking at that also.  I’m thinking it’s time to pull out of the stock I get left, and stand aside awhile.   

When this ball drops, it’s not going to take any prisoners....

 Republicans can’t win an election, without lying....

Jen

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: stock market

I’m far from certain about the near term.

But Trump and Powell created another big problem for capitalism.

BTW, the long bond once again beat the pants off of every other plain vanilla investment. As it has since 2000.

But WS thrives on crowing about the ups and distracting you from the downs.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: stock market

Although predicting anything in the new abnormal is tough.

I did not expect Powell to totally bend to Trumps will and blow the first bubble but I did say no mas as soon as the Rona came into view.

Now The Fed is all in.

 

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: stock market

Totally agree.  It's why I'm eyeing the exit very closely....being in the stock market is one thing.....being in a stock market being manipulated by our government to the extent that it now appears to be is a whole nuther thing. 

I'd rather keep the money I have, for a shot at the future.  Right now I'm 7 years post the sale of the farm, and still have most of the money I retired from the farm with.  I have the same vehicles (except the Bus) that I retired with, no "Round the world trips" taken, no 2nd home purchases at some lake or exotic location somewhere that I have to keep up.  

My 2nd home is in my Morton building - safe and sound - and ready to go if and when this virus thing has some resolution.  Time to protect what I have....

Republicans can't win and election, without lying....

Jen

Packard27
Senior Contributor

Re: stock market

The S&P 500 Index is down only 2.5% from where we started back on January 2, 2020.

Given an impeachment of the president, assassination of a key Iranian military leader (Solimani), a global pandemic, the near complete shutdown of the American economy, a near $27 trillion national debt (and still counting), Chinese Communist friction, Hong Kong, April Oil futures briefly selling below 0 dollars, the nationwide looting, pillaging, and burning at the hands of the tens of thousands of peaceful Millennial protesters representing BLM/Antifa, still closed public schools TBD, and most recently, the spiking murder rates in our most diverse metropolitan cities; it is a miracle that the equities markets are not down right now by 50% or much more.

So, here is a hypothetical question for the day. If any of you absolutely knew with 100% certainty that all of the above events would occur back in early January, what would you have predicted then and how might you have invested your own money with this prior knowledge?

There’s the rub. Crazy times, unexpected events, surprising outcomes, and unreliable futures. Bottom line: Let’s all stay well diversified out there. Continue to think long term (>10 years), believe in America, watch your leverage, and don’t ever sell the farm.

ANF

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: stock market

All good points Packard27.  It used to be, just one of those would take down the market.  Not now.  It looks like a huge case, of delusional thinking - the stock market can’t go down - and I want in.....I’ll stay out, thank you... 

Republicans can’t win an election, without lying....

Jen

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: stock market

Forward guidance, what little there is, suggests a 2600 SP and that’s with stretched valuations.

Expect a real goat rodeo in the coming earnings season. Companies have pulled guidance but WS will trot out some low numbers and then tout the beat.

See, V shaped recovery!

 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: stock market

Broader NYSE is where it was on 9/17.

Tax cuts and ensuing buybacks were a one trick pony.

Beware poor breadth, although it can go on longer than you think.