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the big thing this week

was that the 10 yr UST note finally cleared 3% decisively and can proceed to 4.


It's been a little perplexing that it took so long but now seems that fears about a yield inversion were premature at least.


That'll take the 30yr mortgage to near 6. The brutal math of that is that someone's income might be up 10% in 3 years but the cost of buying a home up 50%.


Same math applies to other stuff.


The frackers still don't make money for the most part but are floated on cheap subprime debt. Credit spreads are also a big factor too- when the yield chase for subprime ends, lookout. An echo of a part of the GFC there.


The economy will slow in '19 and probably approach stall speed quicker than expected but the noise will be all about the two political factions blaming each other.


Bad times ahead.



2 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: the big thing this week

Yup, too bad Hillary didn`t get in and then the headlines would be rosier.   Just elect socialist Democrats and it`s all gumdrops & lollipops.


Michael Hudson????

That's an epic leap- the Olympic triple jump of BA Two Steps- all the way over to Drainin' That Darn 'Ol Swamp.


I've arrived at a final diagnosis of your condition- you have a screw loose but it is simply the one that holds the wire that lets you see beyond believing that The Good People are never at fault and are always The Real Victims.


It is a simple condition, generally regarded as incurable. But much better than some of these guys who have  their circuit boards stuck in backwards.