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Senior Advisor

the current exponential curve

in Covid cases in some locales does probably become self limiting at some point. Even without public health actions, a lot of people will change their behavior.

Still, if we're at 200K cases/day by Thanksgiving (that assumes the curve flattens) would probably result in 3-4K deaths/day by Merry Christmas. 

2 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: We were doing pretty good here until this weekend.

We were doing pretty good keeping cases down, 1, 2 maybe 3 cases every two,  three, or four days, mostly from the schools.  The county health dept was right on top of it with contact tracing and quarantines.  

   Until yesterday, a  barbeque for the youth basketball league resulted in 19 cases in one day,  held outside,  very possibly due to food contamination, no screens over the food, probably lazy handwashing, lazy mask usage.

 In my mind,  trump and his supporters made mitigation measures like mask-wearing political so he's responsible for all the deaths since April.

Senior Advisor

Re: We were doing pretty good here until this weekend.

It'll just go away by April '22.