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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

thinking about the nature of insurgency

I'm really only interested in geneology insofar as it offers any insights into history.

I was thinking about the nature of insurgencies while visiting the grave of a third greatgrandfather (there were 32, if my math is correct)and the fact that the local Legion graciously places a flag on his grave every Memorial Day in honor of his service in the Revolution.

According to his affadavit for a pension, he was a 16 year old orphan in Wilmington, N.C. indentured to a cooper. His first action was in 1778 when his master told him to go help out in some skirmish and from there he was enagaged irregularly in various battles in the southern theater, including a couple years as a hand on a privateer ship, and finally at Yorktown.

The commemorations are for us, not him. He was handsomely rewarded for it all with a pension and was able to buy a farm in OH, later moved his family to a bigger one in IN as an old man.

Anyway, at the onset, probably no more than a half of the Colonials were in favor of the Revolution, or at least of complete secession. There was a big nucleus of hotheads among the NE Puritans and some wealthy and influential southern oligarchs who saw both safety for their way of life and opportunity in it.

Anyway, the basic recipe is to create enough provocations to create an excessive response from the regime and then use that to improve support among the population. Typically- and certainly in this case- an internal civil war is waged  as Tories were increasingly terrorized throughout.

Support from an external power is usually essential- France in our case- or Iran in the case of the Iraqi Shiites, or the Soviet Union in Vietnam.  The same recipe from above applied for the remainder.

Anyway, I'm reminded of the Halberstam/Sheehan/Ellsberg thesis regarding Vietnam. The only way you can win in counterinsurgency is if you have allied yourselves with a legitimate nationalist figure and movement.

I guess Russia is the external power for the MAGA Revolution. And I guess AshliQ, Finicum, David Koresh etc. are the Boston Massacre martyrs for the movement.

The tough thing for the gubmint is that the law is required to respond to the the various probing provocations and the facts will be actively obscured, and martyrs produced by Trusted Sources as needed.

Although I really do suspect that the MAGA revolution will never garner the support of more than about 1/3rd of Americans, no matter how nuts that third get. If anything I think they'll overstep and be the ones turning off the larger population and begin to lose support at the margin.

 

17 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

BTW, the AMC cable series "Turn," about the Culper spy ring on Long Island during the revolution is some pretty good historical fiction. I think it is still on Netflix.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

Well first of all, get "insurgency" and "1/6/21" out of your head.  Those of us who basically just want to go back to our happy place of 2007 aren`t "rebels" or "insurgents"  we just didn`t want this past 10-12yrs of change.  If you couldn`t marry something in 2007, you shouldn`t marry something in 2021, if you could load up the kiddos in the stationwagon and visit a statue in 2007, you should be able to visit the same statue today. 

What Washington and the Founding Fathers faced was they were true "traitors" to the crown, risked and some lost treasure and their lives.  The 1/6/21 was blown out of proportion for political purposes, it was literally a "tour group" that wasn`t good at following directions.  I mean what was their exit strategy?  Poke Nancy Pelosi`s eyes out with a flag staff?  I got news for them, if anything near what they were accused of occurred every SWAT team in the country would`ve been down on them like 20 miles of bad road.  They had no weapons, no tactics, no mission just some misguided tourists off on the wrong street.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

Would be in reference to the insurgency rather than the counterinsurgency but I do get a chuckle tinking about DJT as "a legitimate nationalist figure."

Or nausea, I guess.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

BA, you're a whacko, but at least you tipped your hand.

2000-'08 were a catastrophic time for the USA- two failed wars, an historic financial collapse.

And I thought you'd never heard of that guy who was POTUS back then.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

Objectively, the best period in post-war US history by the metrics of relative peace, prosperity, some wage growth etc. was 1992-2000.

You and Pat might want to get together and sort out why y'all were so radically discontented back then.

There's a whole lot to unpack from that time but that discusson ain't happenin' here.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

I wasn`t thrilled with the never ending "revenge war", however though the war was unconstitutional it kept Democrats and Republicans out of our hair domestically.  Probably sucked to be a A-rab during those years, but they were 10,000 miles away.   It of course was a temporary reprieve for us and in 2008 the pendulum swung hard Left.  Oh I know we "lost rights" as far as taking shoes off at airports and having to pretend to be scared of terrorist boogie men lurking around.  But none of that was near the assault on our freedoms as we`ve seen post-2008.

If George W Bush hadn`t had a war to occupy him perhaps he would`ve been a worse president....or maybe better?   No, definitely worse.

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency


@BA Deere wrote:

Well first of all, get "insurgency" and "1/6/21" out of your head.  Those of us who basically just want to go back to our happy place of 2007 aren`t "rebels" or "insurgents"  we just didn`t want this past 10-12yrs of change.  If you couldn`t marry something in 2007, you shouldn`t marry something in 2021, if you could load up the kiddos in the stationwagon and visit a statue in 2007, you should be able to visit the same statue today. 

What Washington and the Founding Fathers faced was they were true "traitors" to the crown, risked and some lost treasure and their lives.  The 1/6/21 was blown out of proportion for political purposes, it was literally a "tour group" that wasn`t good at following directions.  I mean what was their exit strategy?  Poke Nancy Pelosi`s eyes out with a flag staff?  I got news for them, if anything near what they were accused of occurred every SWAT team in the country would`ve been down on them like 20 miles of bad road.  They had no weapons, no tactics, no mission just some misguided tourists off on the wrong street.


Some misguided tourists?   Who the HELL are you trying to kid BA?    We all saw what transpired at the Bass Tard Trump rally.....we all SAW the results of it.   Millions of dollars in damage to our Capital - gangs with plastic cuffs looking for the leaders of our country - even shouts of “Hang Mike Pence”!   You are as big a liar as that Bass tard you STILL SUPPORT.   You are a traitor to this country.   You, and all the rest of your buddies here.   You keep trying to gloss over 1-6-21.   America knows the truth.   And the BS you continue to post here, will not change minds - it will only strengthen the resolve, to vote those responsible and those that continue to provide  cover for your Bass tard, out off office.

Jen

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

The insurgency was the FBI/CIA spying on the Trump campaign and transition team.

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: thinking about the nature of insurgency

Maybe if your Bass tard Trump wasn’t so “friendly” with “strong man dictators”, the military and our intelligence communities wouldn’t have been so worried about your Bass Tard colluding with foreign governments to win an election.   Our security people did just fine - it’s those that worked to cover the truth, that are the issue in this country.   And - America knows it.....

Jen