Hi BA,
I actually agree with everything you wrote.
Klinefelter at A&M says a 20% drop in land prices would substantially cramp ag lenders and given anecdotal evidence like Bruce's recent "what the heck" post leads me to believe that is true. Not that everyone would be hurting but enough would that the banks would have to start pulling it in- and that tends to be come self-reinforcing.
On Perot, NAFTA, etc., I was pondering a post to explore how I was wrong on that but there isn't a suitable forum- there are about 2 regulars here would engage in a useful discussion as opposed to using it as an opportunity to take shots from behind ideological walls.
FWIW, the basis of the modern "efficient" operation is much more fragile than one might imagine- it isn't exactly apples to apples but dairy and hog experiences are examples- many operations have been saved only by being too big to fail. If little guys posted numbers like that they'd be gone in a heartbeat.
Which is essentially where we are in banking, commercial real estate, etc. The system needs to save the players with the biggest piles of chips in order to save itself.
fwiw, h
