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Senior Contributor

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17 Replies

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/End-of-Great-Recession.pdf

 

Here's the piece from Zandi and Binder concluding the opposite.

Senior Contributor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

 

In this paper, we use the Moody’s Analytics model of the U.S. economy—adjusted to accommodate some recent financial-market policies—to simulate the macroeconomic effects of the government’s total policy response. We find that its effects on real GDP, jobs, and inflation are huge, and probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0. For example, we estimate that, without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.

When we divide these effects into two components—one attributable to the fiscal stimulus and the other attributable to financial-market policies such as the TARP, the bank stress tests and the Fed’s quantitative easing—we estimate that the latter was substantially more powerful than the former. Nonetheless, the effects of the fiscal stimulus alone appear very substantial, raising 2010 real GDP by about 3.4%, holding the unemployment rate about 1½ percentage points lower, and adding almost 2.7 million jobs to U.S. payrolls. These estimates of the fiscal impact are broadly consistent with those made by the CBO and the Obama administration.

 

2 To our knowledge, however, our comprehensive estimates of the effects of the financial-market policies are the first of their kind.3 We welcome other efforts to estimate these effects.

In other words....they guessed.

 

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

Well, they did some math, a lot of math and yes, they guessed.

 

As did Taleb in his opinion. And I like Taleb, he provided a lot of insight previous to the crash.

 

What he appears to be saying in the piece is that the trajectory of Canada looks much more positive than the US currently.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

I wonder how the country would have fared if they had let GM and the rest fail as all you rightwingers wanted (no one is too big to fail).  Remember that?  What would we have done with all the millions of unemployed workers that would have created on top of what we have now?

Senior Contributor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

"I wonder how the country would have fared if they had let GM and the rest fail as all you rightwingers wanted (no one is too big to fail).  Remember that?  What would we have done with all the millions of unemployed workers that would have created on top of what we have now?"

 

First off I personally know of no one that wanted GM to fail.  Secondly GM employs a little over 200,000 in the U.S. and there is only around 400,000 total auto workers in the country. 

 

TWA was a very large company that employed thousands of people and when it went bankrupt it was bought out by American Airlines.  Things generally don't simply disappear from the face of the earth but are bought out or replaced by other companies that employ people.

Senior Contributor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

a good sensible answer, but one thing that quickly becomes pretty apparent is that the left wingers really don't want sensible answers. Once you make the leap to having a left wing ideology, you check the facts at the door when you come in.

Senior Contributor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

Why did the rules apply to TWA but not GM?

Senior Contributor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

"I wonder how the country would have fared if they had let GM and the rest fail as all you rightwingers wanted (no one is too big to fail).  Remember that?  What would we have done with all the millions of unemployed workers that would have created on top of what we have now?"

 

 

 

They would have had to sell off the unprofitable sides of their business. Ford did this 2 years earlier. By doing what we did we have ruined GM. A Ford dealer told me this has been one of the best selling points for his products. I am a Chevy man, but I will be buying Ford next time. I'm Glad I live in a right to work state that does not hold these thugs up as a model to our other businesses. They don't call Detroit the rust belt for nothing.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Obama Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse

I got news for you.  If GM had been left to go under, the others would have been real close behind in addition to all the parts makers.  If they went under, then Ford and every other US maker would have followed suit.  BTW, GM did sell off or close several of their brands.  Doesn't matter where they operate and Ford built Detroit so bad analogy.