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Advisor

Re: I forgot the link

In regards to the larger question of long term oil supply and demand you're looking pretty good so far in terms of questioning whether any experts really know anything at all.

 

The credibility of the conventional oil cornucopians were severely damaged when the peak in global convnentional oil production hit around 2006 when they had assured us that it was many, many years off. But before the peak oilers could get a chortle in, new unconventional sources that they had said couldn't be economically developed came in and filled the output gap.

 

Resource estimates on unconvnetional sources keep growing but one should be cautious (see example a.) and nobody is claiming that they're infinite, anyway.. And they do unquestionably come at a higher cost of production and with greater externalized, mostly environmental, costs.

 

We were handed a lifeline 45 years ago when our convnetional oil production peaked out- there was an abundance of cheap foreign oil to import in order to bridge over to less dependence. That got murkied up in the '70s oil politics and the background to the cold war and we failed to take it.

 

Now we have another, weaker and more tenuous lifeline in unconventional gas and oil.  Given the defense of previously sunk costs that I mentioned in another post, I doubt we will.

 

 

Highlighted
Advisor

Re: willing to change your life?

Not sure how old you are, but I just noticed that Red and hobby were bringing up the conditions that led to tthe "80s farm crisis" somehwere on here.

 

I think you are suffering form the same general malady that set in for me as that ensued.  a period when I simply lost my ability to find and hold faith in ANYthing.  My conditioned superstitions were of no help.  You seem to be holding tight to yours and I hope they are of some.

 

The girls were in elementary and middle school.  Thank heaven for their Mother and the other adult women in our extended family for getting them through that and by and in spite of me.

 

Each of them now in a stable household with 6 figure incomes and so many solid extended relationships in their and their spouses lives that it becomes a challenge to get time with them. Which is a wonderful problem to have. But they call alot, and now even sometimes ask her if they "can talk to Dad".  Smiley Very Happy

 

You are going to eat yourself alive and waste a decade of your life over plots and external injustices that you can't do anything about. Not offering any advice on how to overcome that....because I can see that for you it is real...been there...done that...and, damnit... some of it was...and many things should have been doffernetly by the PTB and the shouder rubbers who carried the PTB water...  Those smart kids of yours have got 70-80 years left in them.  Try not to become contagious.

 

Your friend. B

 

 

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Advisor

Re: I forgot the link

Our area is being swamped by Amish with fat wallets from selling out to frackers in eastern Ohio.  So you look at the shale maps and they are hard on the shallower beds, but there is a huge area across the continent of ever deeper stuff.   I'm safe though, no shale here.

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Senior Contributor

Re: willing to change your life?

 

Well, I also never said I would NEVER have to,need to, or be willing to adjust the Heat & AC use, only that it shouldnt be necessary.

 

I already turn my heat down to 58 at night for winter and in summer I have strategically planted shade trees on the East, South and West sides of my home. Simple things really but I am prepared to do more and Solar panels are likely next.

 

I have rain Barrells under each gutter and I would encourage you to do the same assumming you have a garden.

 

Another personal goal of mine is to ask, encourage or even mandate that 3-4 rows of trees & Shrubs be planted around every single Hog confinement in the state, and then nationally.  They also should seed  the grounds to native grasses and flowers to help with the bee situation.  A true Win / Win for everyone.

 

AJ

 

 

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Advisor

Re: I forgot the link

Had one of those guys who is always coming up with off the wall stuff that sticks in your head and many times once the play is over you say to yourself, "Oh, yeah.  That's what he said would happen".

 

Disclaimer on him...he's a total agnostic when it comes to religion and politics and how they affect geopolitics, so he has no qualms about being ruthless, or what some would call careless, in his opinions or suggestions.

 

What he said was that we ( The North Ameircans....the U.S. .....and Canada if they could  shake off the Empire entanglement bit, and Mexico) should totally realign their chessboard pieces in terms of strategic and diplomatic alliances.  That we should form pacts and agreements with Russia who could easily  bring in a (necessarily and most likely extremely popular with and relieving for the general citizenry there) secularized Iran. And India. Let Europe figure out what they want to do.  Put the monkey on the Germans, Dutch and Swiss to come up with something that doesn't sink Norhern E into the North Atlantic, or burn it down.. Leave Africa primairliy to the Brits and the Chinese and we (teh new alliance) concentrate on the modernization of South America.  The alliance with India and Iran would keep the new allies in play in both the Middle East and SE Asia. And force Pakistian and My Manmar into making some hard choices.

 

 

He predicted that once the game was on the board that the Scandawhovians would take about 5 minutees to decide what they would do.     Said it all creates a cusotmer/trading base that Western Europe and China can't avoid. He did also say, almost jokingly, that Japan could use the transition as an excuse to liquidate and return to the medivial society that one can't be certain most of it's people wouldn't prefer anyway. 

 

One possible kicker, though. The first thing I asked him after he and the Scotch he was drinking laid it all out to us was "What about Israel?".  To which he replied "Who"?'

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Advisor

Re: I forgot the link

Reminds me of the old joke that you've probably heard.

 

GWB was having Prince Bandar over to the White House for a casual evening. He knew that Bandar loved old Star Trek reruns so he got some lined up and invited Gene Roddenberry as a special guest.

 

After they'd wathed a few and were having coffee and cigars, Bandar turns to Gene and says, "I love your work, but one thing troubles me. You have a Russian, character, an Asian and an African. Why are there no Arab characters?"

 

There's a moment of silence and then GWB pipes up "maybe because it's set in the future?"

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Advisor

Re: I forgot the link

BTW, there's a problem with the scenario I describe as far as the large, slowly declining base of conventional oil being slowly supplanted and supplemented with high cost unconventional oil.

 

That is that there's nothing in economic theory to suggest that the market needs to perpetually meet the marginal cost of those higher cost producers.

 

Could be happenstance, could be that as swing producers Rusiia and SA are able to control supply enough to meet their hugely elevated costs (social, not cost of production).

 

Or it could be, and I'm just saying maybe, that our current pact with the devil is that we will ensure that Americans and the world economy get oil at a price that they can just barely live with in order to have Energy Independece, jobs, jobs, jobs.

 

Either way, it seems a tenuous balance.

 

Also, I'd submit that the greater risk here is the same 'ol conventional one- that the decline rate of the "old oil" is steeper than most hope.

Highlighted
Advisor

Re: willing to change your life?

If you like your ac, you can keep your ac.
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: willing to change your life?

So the people who wish to try to do something to lessen the severity of the changes only want the deniers to change and they will keep doing whatever they want?  Is that pretty much what you are saying?  I think your like minded folks are the ones who have a list of undesirables.  Just look at the anti-everything laws your group keeps trying to pass or repeal!  You haven't got a leg to stand on.  You belong to the party of HATE and DISCRIMINATION!

Senior Contributor

Re: SO YOU ANT DEBATE ME

childish retort and a lame excuse why i am better than you ----but then you did show the board ---now wanna explain or keep acting stupid ---i bet you see a fool every day when you look in the mirror  GOTCHA LOL