2017 Cattle Market Predictions

[SupremeFarms]

We are now one week into 2017. What do you think the cattle market will do this year?

I am, as always, perpetually unsure. However, since I am asking others for an opinion, I will share my current thought.

My best, and most likely inaccurate prediction is that the cattle market will end the year almost steady with where it is today. Fats selling in the range of 115 cwt to 120 cwt at the end of 2017. I am guessing that the market will have both upward and downward movement through this year, but I do not think that the movement will be significant in either direction. Probably no more than 20 cwt up or down on fats this year.

Ok, so now that I have probably made a fool of myself, as I all too often do, I will add that the above is my prediction because it is what I want the cattle market to do. The record highs of 2013 and 2014 were very exciting, but the disappointments of 2015 and 2016 overshadowed the highs. I have had more than I want of the cattle market’s stress, drama, highs, and lows. I am hopeful that 2017 will offer a steady cattle market.

Alright, that was more than enough of my wishful thinking; What are your 2017 predictions?

[r3020]

I just hope there is a closing of the $35 colored cattle to Holstein gap.

[SupremeFarms]

 Watching what has happened to the Holstein market over the last few weeks is sickening. I am attaching a link to a research project that compared the performance of Holsteins to other breeds of cattle. I was surprised how well the Holsteins performed.

https://www.extension.umn.edu/agriculture/dairy/beef/comparison-of-dairy-versus-beef-steers.pdf  

Was there any reason given as to why Tyson decided to stop purchasing Holsteins?

I know that the dairy industry is the hardest hit by the Holstein price drop; however, if packers can plummet the price of Holstein cattle this easily, they could do the same with any other group. Pick any breed or color of cattle, which one will drop next.

If Holsteins routinely perform as well as they did in the research project that I attached the link to, at current prices, they are probably one of the most profitable purchases packers are currently buying. Profitable for the packers, that is.

[r3020]

I have no answers to your question. The buyers say let's wait a couple of weeks and see if things straighten out.

[r3020]

Update: Heard from a buyer today Tyson quit killing Holsteins because WalMart said it didn't want any Holstein meat. Not sure if WalMart said it just didn't want Holstein meat or it didn't want any meat from a packer that also kills Holsteins because they were afraid some Holstein might find it's way into WalMart meat cases.

[k-289]

r3020 -  Seems  WALL-mert  jumps around on these ddddeals quite frequently on wholesale aQuizations -  yard equipment , auto suppliers, etc.  Comes grilling season the who  noze what the meat market will display ? 

As far as market guess's - put your $$$  on the roulette spinning wheel -   remember the daze when the stockyard commision man explained due to bad weather & road conditions  '' they'' can't get the trucks thru to move the meat ???  Sure worked back when & drive down Soo City & Omaha fat cattle prices which seemed some what acceptable at the time ---

'' Duuupping ''' our consumer folks today on retail beef $$$ pricing spred is extremely interesting ???

Also find it interesting the chatter from midwest political masters on air handwringing about mergers for the seed suppliers while just a short time ago '' consolidation '' was the niffty, latest, BUZZ WORD  fad in the meat market arena --- 

[SupremeFarms]

Thank you for sharing the information that you learned.  

[wrightcattle]

and the rest of it will be wherever the waters take it.

[k-289]

The  retail  your  consumer  customers  are  paying  now  reflects  that  ---

[SupremeFarms]

Based on Tama's March 8th sale, I think your live cattle prediction has a good probability of being right.

Any optimistic prediction for Holsteins?

http://tamalivestock.com/mar8markets.htm