2017 Cattle Price Graphs thru March

[SupremeFarms]

It looks as though the seasonal spring price increase came early this year.  

The Holstein price difference seems to have stopped spreading.  It will be interesting to see if it narrows, holds steady, or starts increasing again.

Edit: Spelling error.

[wrightcattle]

gonna be an extended Bullish year.

Cash will lead the board Alll year long.

SHOULD have new record high cattle by year end.

( new presidents and new record spending all help...happens Every Time )

bout august folks be sitting around bored with $145cwt tradit fats w many opining just going to be boring thru year end...

Then just like 2003 ( the 1st record Export year ) things gonna rock and roll.

say Spunky Sept and pulling green green green cattle forward in Oct.

say some where between $174cwt and $214cwt tradit fats by year end.

say some $6 cash Midwest corn riding along too.

might as will stay conservative and pick the Middle: say $194cwt high on tradit fats 2017.

Meanwhile...back at the boring spring ranch, say the Spring Fling has yet to get wings....soooo be bout $152cwt tradit fats Tama in the next 60 days.

[SupremeFarms]

Wow! Your post is by far the most bullish I have heard or read in quite some time. I think you are even predicting a greater market increase than what occurred in 2013-2014 (Correct me if I am wrong).

My current outlook is very cautions. Possibly overly cautions. Our current buying budget is something the Wizard of Oz’s Cowardly Lion would have come up with; however, I happen to be the responsible party. It has not been working too well as the wheat pastures that we were supposed to graze out are going to grain. Evidently most people think 500# steers are worth more than 120 cwt.

The current market does seem to have an optimistic trend to it. In the near future I will probably have to get serious and revise my numbers; but as of this afternoon, I am still lacking in courage.

[SupremeFarms]

wrightcattle, congratulations on a good cattle market prediction!

Thirty-four days into your sixty day window the last paragraph of your prediction proved to be accurate with the top end of choice steers at Tama selling for 153.50 cwt.  I am impressed.  

Tama Livestock Auction May 10, 2017

Edit: Add link.

[r3020]

Now if Holsteins could just catch on.

[SupremeFarms]

Holsteins improved a little this week.  Holsteins averaged 7.75 cwt higher this week than last.  Choice steers averaged 5 cwt higher this week than last.  So, while small, Holsteins gained an average of 2.75 cwt more than choice steers in the last week at the Tama market.  

[wrightcattle]

Say a low towards 110 then a 50 to 60cwt Up thru fall. Should be a ride.

[SupremeFarms]

I like your prediction.  I hope that it is accurate and that the down and back up occurs within the next 60 days.

[wrightcattle]

Take 45 days to complete the current down. Then 90 to 180 days of strait rocket Ups. Trading is perception .....supply theoretic demand.....well that's perception too.

[SupremeFarms]

While I like your price prediction, I am less than excited about your time prediction.  

Your time prediction appears logical, as I have read that there is supposed to be a considerable quantity of cattle in the pipeline that will be turned into dinner in the September-October timeframe.  

Perhaps this is bazaar, but there is something that I normally like about a bearish market.  From my viewpoint lower prices signal opportunity.  Anytime we buy cattle I always wish that we could have purchased them for a little bit less.  Then when we sell them I wish we had purchased them for considerably less.  Perhaps I have a knack for selling at the bottom of a market cycle.  

Currently, I would like to see a short term lower market because if we ever get our fence back up (a very important water gap washed out this spring and has remained under water since, which has severely limited our ability to run cattle) we will be restocking with cattle and, as always, I try to find a source where I can source top quality #1's for the price of half-dead #2's.  

However, I am also aware of the fact that with our current feedlot cattle it appears that time wise I have once again picked the bottom of the market.  So, while I am normally all for a bearish market, I am currently hoping that the market bulls take charge for a few months before the end of this year.