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Veteran Advisor

Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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if grain prod keeps going down, all i can see is lows of Dec '08

 

any thoughts??

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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IF.....??????????? OF course grain production is going to continue to go down. Supposed to hit 100 here today.  Actually I think we could take out the 08 lows.Which were something like 84 cents. Right?

WHo's gonna have feed for em?  And if they don't open up lots of CRP soon there won't be any hay either. WHich is gonna suck for the hay guys who were thinking they would finally be able to make some money on the hay crop they had.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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Waiting for a CRP decision that should have been made a week ago --- things getting real crispy in NE  Nebraska and the feeder sales are accelerating throughout the region ---

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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Personally outa spite I hope they don't oen the CRP acres. "they " started this let "them" feel the full weight of their stupidity!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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This year the CRP will be only hay scource for some and the "drought resistant magic bullet " stuff planted on the new tilled acres has not pulled through ---  milo will probably make a come back --- talked to an auction guy and he claimed some of the big outfits are culling up to 50% of the herd ---  

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Senior Contributor

Re: Paper Feeders say 114 to 119, Big cattle go premium

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to lites again, and it's a great backgrounding opportunity now thru 013.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Paper Feeders say 114 to 119, Big cattle go premium

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For some it might be, but a lot of it depends on what they have for feed resources.  Locally, wet distillers have dried up as most plants are either shut down or grinding at a snails pace.  Alfalfa is virtually impossible to come by.  The only ones I can see backgrounding and making a go of it are those that have a lot of cornstalks to graze this winter, and this only works if we don't have a rough winter.  Considering the amount of cows making their way to the salebarn, cornstalks should be abundant.  I can see four weights working in this scenario. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Anyone have a downside tgt on Feeders?

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Between the drought and the price of grain, irrepairable corn demand damage is occuring right now.  A lot of guys getting out of the cow business today will never get back into the business.  I gotta agree with JR on this one.  The gov't started this thing.  Let them see it through.  I saw an interview today where economists are urging people to buy as much meat as they can possibly store for the longterm because prices were going to get to a place where most can't afford it by the fourth quarter.  I read where the swine operators are looking at losses for the next four quarters.  I would think it would be a tad bit difficult to source operating credit under this scenario. 

 

I rarely eat out, but the other day I stopped at a McDonalds to get some ice cream.  I was a bit shocked to see most of their value meals priced in the seven to eight and a half bucks.  Bernanke's a fool, but I don't think even he's foolish enough to unleash more easing knowing full well he'll create food riots.  Swine and poultry numbers will eventually recover once producers have a better feeling about feed prices.  Cattle on the other hand might very well not come back.  I've seen neighbor after neighbor get out of the cattle business never to return.     

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Paper Feeders say 114 to 119, Big cattle go premium

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forgive my ignorance of the terminology, but what are the paper feeders?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Paper Feeders say 114 to 119, Big cattle go premium

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I would assume he's talking about those who only feed cattle on paper meaning they buy corn, buy feeder cattle, and sell live cattle futures rather than the physical commodity.   

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