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Kevin_Penner
Contributor

Cash trade trying to get going this week

Cash trade trying to get going this week

 

Just a few reported yest in KS at $119 (down $3)

 

A few also reported today in TX at $119 (down $3) and in IA at $193 (down $3)

 

 

 

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10 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

What's the  deal  on  this stumbling  beef  trade --- Yankton SD  called  their fats  $3  to  $4  lower  yesterday --- 

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Kevin_Penner
Contributor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Unsure

 

Features for 4th of July have likely already been covered so now what's out there to peak demand? Also, drought story is old and hasn't got much attention this year so no new premium being added for that. Futures failed to rally past $120 ten days ago and now this $115 level looks to be decent support.

 

We need some new news to spur another rally

 

 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Any  news  on  fats >

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Kevin_Penner
Contributor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Fats have traded sideways for the past two weeks and that is not a strong technical set up (especially w strong corn prices).  We're through most of the summer demand holidays so it will not surprise me to see Fat prices break soon.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Tks.  Kevin  for  the  updates

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

 a guy told me sun. that he is losing about 150 a head on his fats. Had two trailer loads go out that he lost 212 a head on.

He doesn't think he is going to refill his lots this fall.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Also has one  thinking  what the volume for dairy weigh ups are doing with this extreme pricing of feedstuffs ---

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GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

Over the years, I've had a pretty good run feeding cattle in the winter months only shipping them in late April.  In the past 20 years, there's been very few years where I opted out and didn't feed cattle.  I will not be feeding any cattle this winter my own calves included.  Wet distillers are impossible to come by, alfalfa prices are through the roof, and it just doesn't make economical sense to do it.  Big feedlots are caught right now between a rock and a hard place.  They also cannot source distillers and are in the process of weaning off the stuff.  The problem now is they either need more alfalfa or silage to fill the protein gap.  Alfalfa is almost as impossible to get as distillers, and it isn't exactly the time to be putting up silage. 

 

A couple of thoughts come to mind.  First, grain farmers should be extremely careful who they sell grain to this winter.  The prospects of not getting paid will more than likely get considerably higher.  Second, the demand destruction we're witnessing right now will be very difficult to ignore in a year or so.  The only thing left to put the final nail in the coffin so to speak is seeing crude oil retreat to 60 bucks a barrel or lower which some ecnomists are already calling for by winter. 

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Cash trade trying to get going this week

At 52,000 and some change the dairy number will only climb from the report out on the 12th.  Weights may even start to decline. If that happens it wtill won't help the price just the future surplus. THe bad thing is that this won't necassarily raise prices to the livestock farmer.

 

Why?

 

AS the price goes higher we will continue to curb demand.  There is no silver lining to this one.

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