Over the years, I've had a pretty good run feeding cattle in the winter months only shipping them in late April. In the past 20 years, there's been very few years where I opted out and didn't feed cattle. I will not be feeding any cattle this winter my own calves included. Wet distillers are impossible to come by, alfalfa prices are through the roof, and it just doesn't make economical sense to do it. Big feedlots are caught right now between a rock and a hard place. They also cannot source distillers and are in the process of weaning off the stuff. The problem now is they either need more alfalfa or silage to fill the protein gap. Alfalfa is almost as impossible to get as distillers, and it isn't exactly the time to be putting up silage.
A couple of thoughts come to mind. First, grain farmers should be extremely careful who they sell grain to this winter. The prospects of not getting paid will more than likely get considerably higher. Second, the demand destruction we're witnessing right now will be very difficult to ignore in a year or so. The only thing left to put the final nail in the coffin so to speak is seeing crude oil retreat to 60 bucks a barrel or lower which some ecnomists are already calling for by winter.
