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Contributor

Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

est 100.8M

 

98.8% of last year

 

 

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5 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

What are the market guesses I have been pretty well stuck putting up feed and havn't had time to find the range. 

What do you hear about demand going forward?

Don't you thinkif this price holds here for a while and corn and beans move up we will see more liquidating of the cow herd? JR

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Contributor

Re: Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

                    Average    Range of       Avg      Range
                    Estimate   Estimates    (Pct of   (Pct of
                   (mln head)  (mln head)    yr ago)   yr ago)
Total cattle
and calves          100.8  100.2 -101.2     98.8    98.2- 99.2
Cows/heifers that
 have calved         40.84  40.7 - 41.09    98.6    98.3- 99.3
Beef cows            31.79  31.7 - 32.01    98.7    98.4- 99.4
Dairy cows            9.05   9.0 -  9.1     98.4    97.8- 98.9
Heifers 500 lbs
 and over            16.1   15.85- 16.3     99.4    97.8-100.6
For beef cow
 replacement          4.42   4.4 -  4.5     98.3    97.8-100.0
For milk cow
 replacement          3.94   3.9 -  4.02    99.8    98.7-100.0
Other heifers         7.74   7.5 -  7.95    99.8    96.8-102.6
Steers 500 lbs
 and over            14.15  14.1 - 14.23    98.2    97.9- 98.8
Bulls 500 lbs
 and over             2.09   2.05-  2.1     99.4    97.6-100.0
Heifers/steers/bulls
 under 500 lbs       27.6   27.4 - 27.8     99.0    98.2- 99.6
Calf crop 2010
 estimated           35.43  35.2 - 35.75    98.9    98.3- 99.8 

 

 

 

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Contributor

Re: Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

Demand seems to be in good shape, exports remain strong

 

We could see some cow liquidation especially if corn prices really start to take off

 

 

 

 

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Contributor

Re: Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

USDA sees growth in U.S. beef exports this year
 
By Tom Johnston on 7/22/2010
 

USDA raised its forecast for U.S. beef exports in 2010 to 2.09 billion pounds, a 12-percent increase from 2009. At that level, U.S. beef exports would reach 83 percent of pre-BSE levels in 2003, the agency said in its recent Livestock, Dairy and Poultry outlook.

USDA expects second- and third-quarter growth in U.S. beef exports of 15 and 11 percent, respectively, to 540 million and 550 million pounds. The agency said a strengthening U.S. dollar is not expected to dampen demand, partly due to growth in Asian markets.

Through May U.S. beef exports were up 26 percent over the same period a year ago, fueled by increases in Japan (24 percent), South Korea (74 percent), Taiwan (54 percent) and Hong Kong (126 percent).

Another positive for U.S. beef exports, USDA said, are possible supply constraints in markets of competing beef suppliers. Tight supplies in Argentina, for example, have prompted Russia to seek out more U.S. beef. Meanwhile, Australia’s beef production in 2010 is projected to be the lowest since 2003.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Estimates for Semi-Annual Inventory Report

dull but it sure looks liek teh cycle turned

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