For wrightcattle (Markwright)
I was reading a cattle related forum on a different website this week, and noticed a totally different atmosphere than there had been a few weeks ago. It has definitely turned pessimistic. Your July 28, 2014, prediction of "Granted, folks ain't gonna trade and keep current, soooo a $14 cwt DOWN correction In / thru Dec." was dead on. That downturn has been enough for all of the bears to come out of hibernation and depress everyone. (No offense intended to the bears who read this, I happen to be one.) Your positive attitude and optimistic outlook definitely improved the atmosphere of that forum.
It can be very difficult to decipher how much one person contributes to a website when someone is actively on it. I think few realized how much you contributed to that website until you were gone. Optimists are few and far between, and an optimist with your knowledge of cattle, who is willing to share his knowledge daily with anyone on an internet forum for free is nearly impossible to replace. it is very sad that the individuals in charge of that forum chose to ban you and lose the incredible wealth of knowledge that you possess.
I am grateful that you chose to join this forum, and that you are still posting. Hopefully, more posters will discover that you are still online, and chose to post more on this forum. Most of the posts regarding your absence topped 10,000 views (more than one went over 30,000). The number of views tells me that tens of thousands of people read and benefited from your posts.
The way that the moderators on the other forum have chosen to ignore legitimate questions that have been asked by several posters is disheartening. The moderators decision to ban a poster (especially one who has contributed as much to their website as you have contributed almost daily for five years) without giving an explanation for their actions, shows a lack of character, and an inability to justify their actions. This evening, I hesitantly posted my disappointment with their inconsistent enforcement of forum rules and with the lack of transparency with the decisions that have been made in the Cafe forum of their website. It is my expectation that they will ignore that post, as they have ignored all of the others.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge of cattle. Your uncanny ability to predict the cattle market is fun to read. Please keep posting.
Re: For wrightcattle (Markwright)
Garvo keepd leading the negative cheerleading over at the other site.
Mark what is ahead for the cattle market?
You have been spot on this year.
Harvest numbers are down more than 8% when
you look at the lack of both fed and non fed harvests weekly.
Fed tonnage is down 7%.
This week folks are back from the rodeo...show lists come back on and fats likely move $3 to $10 cwt higher ( it's 1 of those kinda weeks ).
pipeline needs resupplied to the east / northeast after this last 2 week run of tough winnter there.
Beef exports are up 31% ( as of weekly exports quoted week of 10 days ago ).
the only buldge in the less total cattle available is basically for the mid jan thru mid feb time frame time.
we're going higher....it's that simple it IS the Long Term Trend.
$193 cwt fats going out of this year? it could happen. MO
sooner or later processors are gonna figure out all it takes for a touch more tonnage is more money.
This deal is a piece of pie ( except for the drouth ),
we're simply gonna have to let the Obvious Up Cash Beef train keep on rolling.
let all those pessimists that say they got rich on $85 cattle keep on yippin like the sorry bunch of pessimist coyote pack they are.
( how dam stupid is it to wish for lower markets like the supposed good ole days??????????????? )
Beef has become a Globally Preferred Food Product. it's that simple.
heck, $340cwt usa fat cattle works out to $1.50 worth of beef in a quarter pound burger....seems like a lot of room left in beef to me.
i figure the Pacific Basin consumer will not balk at all on $1 per ounce beef ( $480cwt usa fat price ) they can afford the $4 of beef in those quarter pound burgers too.
Guess What Happened
My guess was wrong. The moderators of the other site did NOT ignore my post, THEY DELETED IT!!!!!!!!!
Before it was deleted it had received seventeen replies, most of which supported the moderators.
dannydill788821 (dj dill) thank you for replying to the now deleted post. It was good to know that a few actually agreed with me.
I was careful to NOT violate any of the posting policy rules when I typed the post. Unfortunately, I am incapable of reading the unposted rules.
Sometimes you just have to laugh.
Re: a 5% move is
The Demand Function side of beef is really strong ( Globally ).
we're going to be looking back on 2014 and think it was a pretty boring market year for cattle.
could easy be $100cwt higher fat cattle a year from now. MO
Re: For wrightcattle (Markwright)
MW you sound a lot likr MT did on the corn a while back I will agree this cattle deal is going higher just have to sit at the barns and see who is buying these cows most are gonna have there heads removed in about 8 months. Very few young guys around. Not many wanna do the work. And then just look at the capital it takes to start a little herd. Myself thinks these cattle are cheap also sit down and put a pencil to it not much reward for the risk.