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sw363535
Honored Advisor

More numbers problems..

http://www.leaderandtimes.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15260:national-beef-to-sh...

 

 

 

National Beef closing a plant in California because of cattle numbers'

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10 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

This going forward is going to have a bigger impact on the grains than people are willing to admit right now. Remeber the losses that happened this fall in SD are still not fully realized as those were cows that were GOING to have calves.

 

The PED outbreaks in the hog industry are huge It has the affect of millions of open pig spaces.

 

I remeber in 2010 looking at USDA numbers on Feed usage and just saying they are outright lieing on that feed usage number.  THe reality is with our dwindling numbers as evidenced by lower kill numbers bears out the fact that they are lieing about cattle and hogs which leads me to believe that the feed usage number is no where close.

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

Goooooooood morning JR.  ',,,,.    Missin' your wit & wisdom!!!

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toyN81wZzLw

 

 

 

A must watch in this weather ------------------------------ "they want to see me chore!"     "cho-o-o-o-o-o-ore"

 

 

serious thought coming

 

 

 

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

"I got the eye of the bovine      at dinner time,   starin through the sunshine..........................."

 

Appreciate the page put into this film with respect to those who lost so much in the dakota blizzard.

 

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Jr.,

I see local cattle guys who are pinching themselves over the prices and telling us to get ready "these prices will probably be gone in a year."  --------------------

I don't see it.  Looks like beef prices are not high enough to me.  After what we have been through in the last three years..........

The box meat keeps finding a home,  No one is picketing the meat counter or fainting from sticker shock and falling into their grocery cart in fromt of a film crew----- yet.

What price makes an irrigated circle in southern Neb. change from corn to silage??  That is where beef needs to be in the "universal value statement"( in my mind) in order to build inventory enough to see a big down turn in cattle prices.

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your point about feed usage..........   My enthusiasm for exports this last few months has been two sided --1 I do think they signal where grains are at "bargain" prices in  the buyers view.   But  2  There is a view from the other corner that says "We are so lucky exports rebounded so quickly from 2012, because our feeding has issues that could put us up to our necks in ddg's & wdg's and looking for a place to put whats in the bin in hidden carry over.

 

------- by the way how would you like to be china ?------- we got grain and soy and beef ... never in the right ratios, but that is what's in US storage.  But China has dollars up to their chin's and only one place to take them to convert them to something real.  Reminds me of one of those Bruce Willis movies where he looks up from the floor with a bloody face and says "Got him right where I want him!"

 

Learned a couple of things at the JR. School of Finance.  But the other stuff creeps in.

 

 

 

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

Grocery store should be our battle field of choice right now.

 

Beef could go up 1.50 per lb across the board increase and no one would notice.  Most are wondering how much of the meats are staying so low in price.

The diversion action is all taking place over in the veggies and fruits, where the big green usda signs have gone up and 7 new definitions for the term organic are taking shelf space.  ------- The 4+ inch heels are clacking their way to that counter to buy image and the working shoes are sifting through the cheaper looking for what will kill them the slowest.

Prime time for the prime to take advantage............

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hardnox
Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

As far as PED-V goes, don't recall a lot of handwringing when somebody in the neighborhood, or more, got TGE most winters. Or later, pseudo outbreaks.

 

Anybody got a good handle on how widespread it is?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

The big hands that hold the hogs now are not saying much locally.

 

But I know the death loss has changed the flow of grain to the feed mills a little.  A couple of commercial drivers we use mentioned it.

 

So my answer should have been no I don't.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

Good point nox  - used to be the outbreak meant immunity for later ---remembered the vet saying exspose the un -bred gilts as a preventive which was stable advice and not a wives tail and spring warm temps solved the problem ---

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

SW  - seeing at number of articles about dry lot cow - calf  --- intensive calf managment being the red herring  ---

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: More numbers problems..

jr. I hope "you" are getting some of the  $4.45 my wife gave for that gallon of milk knowing what your family does on the daily grind 2 times daily  24 - 7 --- stay safe  --- 

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