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Advisor

Notch Your Hat

Down , and don't forget to mark em out.  

 

China is is where the beef is going.

 

This is the 3rd month in a row of record beef imports by China, 

say they're importing 80% more beef than last year.

 

Say 92,000+ tonnes per month now, 

And the 3rd month in a row beef imports by China have eclipsed their pork imports.

Btw, pork imports by China are Down 2.2% so far, 2018.

 

Thru Oct say bout 830,000 tonnes of beef imports to China.

 

I expect say 1,000,000+ tonnes of beef to China for 2018.

Grant that is only bout 4,500,000+ head of finished cattle.

 

This is the front of an Extraterritorial market encounter most folks never encounter.

 

The Tiger is loose.

I expect China to import say 20,000,000 head of cattle i.e. Beef equivalent in 2019.

 

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11 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

A good thing.  Seed down ground to pasture and hay that otherwise would`ve went to soybeans.  Better for the land and US employment.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

where  did  these  NUMBERS   COME   FROM   ?   ?  ? 

 

Beef  magazine  saying   600 ton  /  Month    from  US    - 

 

 600 X  10    =  6000   X  2000   =    or  300   container's / cargo's  -  -  -

 

Kansas  $116.oo

 

$116.oo   cash     -  $180.oo dressed  Nebraska   

 

Tama  Iowa   Steer  $116.85  top

                      Hfr      $115.75

                      Holstein $ 82-  $85   Nov . 28

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Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

The numbers to China are beef from Everywhere.

not much is from the USA.

 

get Real..Trump will wreck any beef opportunity from the USA to China.

 

Besides I doubt the USA can come up w 4.5 million finished cattle for a customer...

And 20 million finished cattle from the USA is certainly impossible.

 

Think AU, AR, and BR to supply large quantities of Quality Finished type Beef.

 

the USA could supply a fair amount, however the consolidated process club ,

trump etc are to greased for beef producers to make any dough working for that System.

sooo....1 Tin Soldier Rides Away.  That Simple.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

I  seen  Sec  Ag.  Sonny  carving  a  Prime Rib , with China  officials  -  although  I  didn't  see  our  China  Ambassador  from Iowa  ? 

 

Where   is  Ambassador  Terry by  the  way ,  need  more  checkoff  $$$$   for  soybeans   &  beef  ? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Notch Your Hat

That's exactly what we are doing. Another 22 acres in 2019 going to new pasture/ forage. I have been getting tons of calls for horse hay as well. 

 

A vigorous economy always means a vigorous demand for beef and hay. 🤠👍

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Honored Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

Hey Craig, a guy on C.L at Riceville has alfalfa rounds at $200 and alfalfa/grass at $175, he didn`t say per ton or bale.  But, a lot of alfalfa died out this year around here, some say it was only the Renk`s alfalfa.  My new seeding of Albert :Lea Seedhouse is doing fine.  

 

But that $7 corn, guys plowed up hay, figuring on buying it cheap and paying for it with $7 corn.  Well corn went to $3 and they needed to sell more of it, so they keep having to buy hay and the supply doesn`t keep up.  Around here farmers always say "if I run out of hay, I`ll sell cows rather than buy hay!" but that never happens, they go to hay auctions and look straight ahead and buy their hay needs every week at what ever price.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

Reflecting  back  to  the  ''''  hay  daze '''  of  2014 - 2016  -  forage  markets  tops   -  today  being  feed  for  1/2  price -  -   -

 

World  Feeding  Prices  -  50%  discount  -  maybe - ? 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Notch Your Hat

That is probably priced by the ton. Auction prices are as high as I have seen in a long time. The best times to sell are November and May. I heard of one lot of hay selling at Dyersville for $320 per ton, 4th cutting alfalfa, small squares. 

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Notch Your Hat

Yes, it seems hay got higher eariler this year.  In years past they would try and stretch until it was March and then it would get crazy, they`re anticipating higher prices before spring.  One guy is banking on prices taming down later in the spring, but with talk of poor seedings, I wouldn`t bet on it.

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