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Veteran Advisor

Re: I figure your misjudging the obvious

Better keep an eye on slaughter weights - lots of yield grade 5's around - will see

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Advisor

Re: There's more steers in the harvest mix now,

harvest weights peaked in nov or dec....just like normal.

 

they get lighter going thru spring...more calf fed cattle and less yearlings in the mix.

 

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls711.txt

 

the interesting number is % of heifers in the mix....shows say 28% for dec.

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: There's more steers in the harvest mix now,

I'm guessing the 28% of heifers is high compared to history.  What is the normal percentage of slaughter heifers?

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Advisor

Re: Mix has been running 34 to 47% heifers for years,

i've never specifically checked dec data though.

 

the 1st tell tale of stabilizing cowherd numbers is heifers in the harvest mix running below 30%.

 

May June July Aug would be the main indicate months.  MO

 

 

funny thing is some market analyists seem to think the usa cowherd is going to expand and there will be more beef by 2017.

Perhaps A FEW  THINGS some dudes don't get:

1.  when a heifer is saved now, bred in 15, calfs in 16 her calf should be fat in 2017.

..However that 1st calf only replaces the Mom that was saved out of the 2015 harvest....SOOOOO there's no net beef increase until 2018 ( calf born in 2017 be the cow's 2nd calf )

 

2. Breed up is never 100% ( get to 90 1st, MO )

 

3. Calfing rate after breed up thru gestation is never 100% ( get to 90 1st,  MO )

 

 

USA would have to keep back ( AND Breed ) bout 4 to 4.5 million head of heifers to stabilize the decline trend of cow herd numbers nationally.

( ain't gonna happen ).

 

what happens is those bangs tagged heifers make great feeder cattle too...so a few get kept and bred.  Most though go thru an auction and to a feedlot.

 

the first thing 1 misses when saving heifers is that $1,500 you did not take for her to start with.

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Say 7 weeks of $1 to $7 cwt higher now for cash cattle

40% Heifers at the auction is about what I've been seeing up here
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