cattle-- cycle, prices..,, beef demand,,, weights et al.

[pritchh]

I badly need to expand my network of those interested inand discussing  > beef ,   cattle,  prices,   supply demand,   beef demand curve,  where we are at etc.   IE I think red ink has flowed for 3-4 years in feeding cattle ? Large implications. 

There has been some discussion here in the past, are there any of you out there?    I really believe we are in a very critial time,

where decisions made in the next QTR, could have big implications to any of our economics. 

Cow-calf, full time beef feeders, part time holstein etc feeders.  Even to the most economic way to market corn considering the

possible spaly of corn prod, and outcomes this yr and next. 

Are you out there  ???????????????/

In a day ofr so I will post some of my themes and wish for feedback, critical analysis and hope some others will throw out their ideas.

     Thanks, Pritch  .. 

[Longcreekfarms · Accepted solution]

I run 200 mamas and background the calves to about 800 lbs. Chop 40 acres forage sorghum in September which I have 95/acre in. And about 20 acres of corn added to it at 311/acre. Run over 250 acres hay ground which includes orchardgrass, Timothy, brome, and alfalfa. Averages 92 dollars invested for fertility and baling on my figures. So that's 33,020 to get them through the winter. Add in 250 acres pasture at 52/acre for N and herbicide for summer grazing, approx 5000 per year for auto waterers and fence repair. 3000 in vaccines and doctoring. That makes 54020 total investment. Not counting my time, or whatever dollar figure per acre to put on my FX harvester, it would only take 56.27 calves at 1.20/lb to cover costs. I might have a little better survival average than that 😉 IMO, the cow man can still make a living if he's not buying 2300 dollar heifers, but keeps his own replacements, doesn't splurge on the latest new handling and hauling equipment, and isn't afraid to get out of bed in the morning.

[k-289]

 L C P   =    another lowest cost producer has signed in - great job and your ending statement is a benchmark --- consumer retention will be a continuing challenge ---  

[buckfarmer]

There was a time when I was very interested in the cattle market. But I live too far from my farm and can't trust hired help to properly care for cattle. So.... I'm on the verge of being out of the cattle business. I even put some feelers out to young guys in the area that I had pasture available. No one was interested.

[Longcreekfarms]

Amen on not trusting help. That's why I don't have any. I have a friend that has kind of moved from construction work into row crop. If I need someone to work a head gate, or steer a dump truck during chopping, he's my go to guy. If he needs help setting a combine, or figuring out his spraying plans, he comes to me. Things work pretty smooth for us this way. No cash handed out, just trading work and advice. Whatever happened to having neighbors? Not just living next to someone....

[pritchh]

long creek ,,, thank  you ,,,,,, extra for that.  very informtive.

i am NE US based, here near no cow/calf ops make $$, probably poorer hay tonnage and

no sirgum grown.  land is sky high unless you already own it.

small % of the cow population here.  so helpful to see the hard #s from a real operation.

a jinx but i think in 1-2 yrs feeders will be 2$ plus.   maybe we are losing beef demand etc, but the herd shrinks and shrinks, cow slaughter very high this spring.     when the coin turns,, scarcity  will rule for 2-3 yrs. 

[pritchh]

THX  ...

[Shaggy98]

Interesting," land is sky high unless I own it". What does that mean, when I buy ground the price drops? Always thought real estate appreciated in value and automobiles depreciated.

[pritchh]

I should havee said, if you own land from way back, no debt, it is easier .  To buy 2-3K land if yo u can find it in C or NE PA or S tier of NY,  forage peoduction clime limited, 1-2 cutting max. Dry hay, small might do 160 sq bales / A max.  I think impossible to cow/calf profitably if you are paying for the farm as well.  

The land is captal as well, could be sold etc but maybe the theme is call it a capital investment, held for enjoyment and appreciation. The cow/calf op eraion is the operating venture, jsut using teh land in the meantime,
doesn't jive with Fm Mgmt, Ag Econ 30 yrs ago at Penn State.  I will work up a budget and see how it comes out.

With limited land here, 89 A, 30 good hay gound and but only 30-40 in pasture, so so grade, maybe the route to go because of the limits, would be rare breed cow calf, more a hobby but the good of corservation has value and 10-15 cows would work.  Oxen,  ha, I need some Oxen!!!

[Longcreekfarms]

I'm waiting on weather now for 2nd cutting alfalfa. It's budded up and will start bloom in a few days. Just finished Timothy. Making 48" wide by 68" tall rolls. Avg 6.5 rolls per acre on it this year. Small squared a bit too, it run 175 bales/acre. Just 1000 bale, enough to keep the co-op happy through the year. But they have been paying me 7 a bale. Pretty good beer money. 😉 It's been an excellent hay year in my area if you can get it made. Have had two windows in the past month of four days each time without rain. Some of the neighbors are really crying the blues over that! Lol. Anyhow, I have about 200 extra rolls of pure Timothy that was mowed right and baled right that I'm not going to need. If anyone close is searching for hay, I'm at 70 per bale or 120 a ton. Delivery available for the right price.