cattle futures from here, brainstorming,

[pritchh]

May to recent highs saw 142 to 155 in FCQ futures, ok but not dynamite vs the seasonal. LC Q is 121 up from 118 low but really dull.2012 high prices might have done some damage to demand, a guessand a theme , gradually “eat” healthy” is working it way into composite diets.

From here, futures, my thesis is RED ink in feedlots will take its toll. Excess feedlot capacity has helped keep placements from dropping much more. (what banks back those things!)  Have not checked weights lately but they were coming down fast, feedlots feeling the pain and marketing early.  Net, net  I think a bull arises out of this, small were #s to meet still significant demand.

Bigger cattle cycle, secular picture, I need to review, others with views to share?

[jrsiajdranch]

Well it looks like ya got the supply side nailed. The demand side however can't afford beef at this price.  Therfore I think highs are in and we may even get back close to 1.10 -1,15 for the rest of the year.  Feeder cattle may go nuts tho because while we do have a corn crop it is late. Therfore a greater demand by more folks to put in some calves instead of drying corn.

[k-289]

Seems the cow  -  calf side of things is still very cautious due to range conditions  still nagged with dry conditions along with maintenace of a herd 365 ---  $300 to $400 net with a 125 head herd doesn't offer a lot of options if you carry much debt or in the market for a pickup and trailer ---

[Kay/NC]

Here's a question: If you had the pickups and trailers, grass established, with fencing around it more than sufficient for cows and calves, and irrigation/ fertigation assured, would you be tempted to buy a few cows, to utilize the grass? Sheep are leaving the place, need a new venture....

[Shaggy98]

Cattle are not near as hard on grass as sheep are.

[Kay/NC]

And, I would think coyote are not as hard on cattle as they are on sheep.

What about the overall question of buying a few cows now? I may want to reinvest the flock dispersal money.

[k-289]

Save the beef headaches at our age for the next generation -just had a neighbor get a broken wrist that needed  7  pins  - capital gains are only @ 20 %  ha   ha   

[Kay/NC]

Well, this is actuallabout the next generation, too. I calculate that 25-30 good calves would take the local property tax burden off of this place every year. Not a small consideration, and daughter and SIL have bern asking about starting a herd, so they have interest. They have portabl corrals, and a headgate is not a deal-breaker to buy.

Let's add " two strng, healthy young people to help work them...even if you don't count the hired man, who makes three. ". We have land that is great for grass, not much more. I have never been able to figure crops - other than tobacco, before it all went to contracted production - that could reliably beat livestock for income. Can you?

[clayton58]

Kay, It sounds like you have all the ingredients except the cows.  What a great oppurtunity.  IMO, the timing is right.  A lot of the western cattle region is still in drought, the national cow herd is low, and not in expansion mode yet.  That means limited supplies for several years yet.  A lot of cattle are (were) owned by older people who won't be rebuilding their herds.  It all adds up to an oppurtune time to get in, if you have the resources.  Be sure to get cattle that can perform on grass, with little to no supplemental feed.  I'd suggest you check out Pharo Cattle Company.  Just Google it.  Best of luck with your new venture.

[Kay/NC]

I have hears Kit Pharo speak, several years back, at a grass-farmers' conference. It was a real experience, and I have quoted him many times since, sometimes on my own speaking engagements.
Most notably, "Grass is a function of rainfall" and " There is always a bottom ten percent".

We know that cows are selling high here, and we do not just want to wind up buying everyone else's bottom tenth of the herd at auction. I think we will stick with Black Angus...although, I would like to try some Murray Greys, too.

We are fortunate to have irrigation equipment, in those cases where rainfall fails us. Mike's family always ran a few cows, and our kids had some when they were young. Otherwise, we do have cash to spend, materials on hand for where fencing needs to be added, and baling expertise and equipment for storing supplemental forages.

If we were to fence all the available grass we have, I would say we could graze close to 350 acres. Already about halfway enclosed. That ought to be a good start...if the inputs are cheap enough, as grass can be, we could stay out of ted ink, even if beef prices drop considerably. Hard to see a lot of downside risk, at least so far.