cattle futures from here, brainstorming,

[clayton58]

The way I see it is that if/when the drought in the plains breaks, someone is going to be looking for good young cows.  Anyone in a position to fill that need will be in the drivers seat.  I don't know if the demand will be nationwide, or just regional, but I would guess it will affect prices across the whole country.  Cows may seem high now, but I see more upside than down.  Now if we can just break this drought.

[Shaggy98]

With the rain fall I've received over the last 8 days, I'm not sure if my drought is broken, but the foundation has just been laid for 2014. Another 2.9" within the last 22-24 hours. That puts me just under 9" received since last Saturday and it is still raining. I took some pictures earlier today of all the creeks, my oldest son is 17 and this is the first time he has seen some of our creeks running. I'll post them in the middle of the night, don't even ask, I know I've got strange hours.

[Kay/NC]

Clayton, we were ten inches ahead fo the year at the end of June, and I know July has been above normal..Will get stats this week, I am sure. I am thinkiing there will be some pent- up demand down the road, too.

We are talking using this fall and winter, which is mild here in MC, for fence cleaning and new fence construction. Buying three- packs in the spring...maybe a handful of them sooner, if a deal too good to pass up appears on our radar.

We have a few good cattlemen relatives and friends, who would give us good guidance on finding the right stock. I am not looking to be the next cattle baron(ess), just enough to make sure we don't have to ever support a piece of land, instead of vice versa..

[buckfarmer]

Kay if I remember correctly I'm about the same age as your daughter. I feel I'm getting to old for the cow calf business. I've been kicked, stomped, gored, and knocked down by cattle for thirty plus years. It's hard work. I don't know how people much older than me work cattle. I never made the money some claim to make either. Like you I had plenty of grass. One thing I've learned on here is that the western cattle people don't have near the deer damage to fence that we do here in southern Ohio. With labor my fence costs are about $2500 per year. That's only for 100 acres. Almost forgot about the ticks in the spring and chiggers in the summer that eat us alive when we have to fix fence those times of the year. I'm thinking about running stockers in the winter but not interested in cow calf operation any longer.

[Kay/NC]

She is 33, and we are 59 this year. I suggested stockers, too, and we have a grazing cow-calf tenant on on farm in VA, who might be a good source of calves for us here in NC. I was told our quality of grass here isn't good enough for stockers, so we are just going to fix fence for this fall and winter, and see what we feel like, come spring.

[Shaggy98]

Can you supplement the low quality grass with protein tubs?

[pritchh]

Agree Clayton.

Acknowledged, am known for being WRONG here  but we think the #s are getting so low,

that even if the demand curve has shifted, we are going to be short beef before too long.

Differing view, any of us in our communities or region can feel like the economy is rough,  but across the country we still have 15,5 Trillion GDP.   The great recession saw but a yr or 2 down 1-2% in GDP, thus the bulk was still there,.   Definately uneven.

In the NE we don't even count, #s are so small vs the MW and west. Land can sell for 3-4k,/ A with low quality pastures. The land goes for private getwaways not AG USE. Farm preservation can help.   Hay is plentiful, with the zillions of dairy closures over 30 yrs.

I think yearling heifers, 2-4  yr old cows are a bargin here. 2-3 yrs out, a double is possible.

I need to dig into the #s and for fun will report back.

Thx to all for the discussions.

[pritchh]

Kay  simple thing I shoould know, any idea teh approx cost of high tinsel fencing?

Spent yrs, 3 decades ago endlessly fixing old barbed wire fence. Not again. 

[Shaggy98]

If you've got grass to rent out, spending a few $ on new fence will pay for itself in just a few years by being able to charge a premium for the rent.  I didn't believe this until it was proven to me about 20 years ago.  Cattle producers are willing to pay the extra $ on piece of mind knowing they won't need to spend 30% of their time repairing someone else's fence.  Been there, done that.

[pritchh]

Buck- what breed beef cows do you have? Do you use suppliments beyond pasture and hay?

How do you feed the hay, large round or and what kind of feeder do you put the hay in?

Seems something with teh least waste is essential.

Looking for some way that doesn't require a lot of labor.

Does anyone feed hayledge  to beef cows?

TIA