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Senior Contributor

mighty bull mkt

industry gets ovewrly negative, depressed minds liquidate.

 

and bingo we hqve a super bull market.

 

Feeders, wow !

 

I hope we correct but 1 -2 yrs out I think way higher

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11 Replies
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Advisor

Re: mighty bull mkt

  Am hearing of club lambs selling for $200.  That's a long way from $50 when my kids started 4-H.  But I wasn't selling cattle for over a dollar either.   20 years ago $200 would buy you a guaranteed winner lamb or your money back.

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Senior Contributor

Re: mighty bull mkt

amazing

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Veteran Advisor

Re: mighty bull mkt

I am thinking the bull is about to be steered!~

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Veteran Contributor

Re: JR, Whistle Dixie that tends to

take REAL thought.  

 

Long term trend cattle is $0.50 cwt. cash up per week.

 

Every big up week ( 4 to 6 up ) for the past 1.5 years has been followed a down week however with still higher prices than the level of 2 weeks before.

 

Example:

3 weeks ago national cash avg was,  $112 cwt.

Then a $6 up for the national cash avg of $118 cwt. last week.

Then a $4.34 cwt down for the national cash of $113.66 this week.

 

Keep in mind this is the "big moon" time now.   Last one was in 1993.

We had a 45% NET up in national cash cattle in 1993.

 

Kinda early to call it, and we're not to $123 to $125 cwt yet.

 

JR there's currently ( statistical trip on this is actually the upcoming week ) slightly over a 50% chance of some $155 cwt national cash avg usa fat cattle prices for 2011.

 

psst...sharpen your knife then.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: mighty bull mkt, on sheep

Good young ewes in AU are $400 to $500.

 

India driving the global lamb demand....have been for a couple trhee years now.

 

Bout a 90% chance of $250 cwt to $300 cwt fat lambs in the usa for 011.

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: mighty bull mkt, over a 50% statistical chance

now of $155 cwt usa fat cattle in 011.

 

Feeders this fall...I'm figuring the light calves say 400 to 450 lbs at $200 to $300 cwt ( just throw a dart anywhere between those numbers and you'll be right ).

 

Big steers off grass weighing 700 to 800...say $155 to $185 cwt.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: mighty bull mkt, over a 50% statistical chance

Hey Mark what do you think corn will be to fatten those steers?  I am thinking that those are overly optimistic. THe US market can't handle 5 dollar hamburg.

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Senior Contributor

Re: JR, price of corn in relation

to cattle is not a primary feed expense factor.

 

Thee main energy feed input for many cattle in a confinement setting is wdg's/ddg's....costs of those likely vary widely.

 

Last quote ( 2 hours ago ) I saw on 30% dm seep worked out to $83 per ton air dry in the bunk.

Last night checked on a Midwest deal,  50% modified for a set...worked out to $165 per ton air dry in the bunk.  

 

If the usa 15 cut retail average beef price were $8 per pound...that works out to $2 for the beef in a quarter pounder.

Also works to $220 cwt live cash fat cattle so to speak.

 

Gas getting higher again, traffic counts dropping now means Americans will vacation close to home this year.

Should be a GOOD season for grilling meats.

 

Keep in mind $5 or $6 per lb burger looks pretty cheap to most if there's a gas scare above only $4 per gallon.

 

With those nickel every day or so gas ups, most folks are wary enough they're not likely to risk being caught 10 days and 1,200 miles out on vacation.

 

Another year that folks vacation close to home...and spend more there too.

 

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Advisor

Re: JR, price of corn in relation

   It sounds like the cost of food is catching up to everything else.  The farmers have been subsidizing the consumer long enough.  Now if only we would quit cutting each others throats in land grabs we could have it pretty good.

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