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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,405
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Understanding Yield Projections

The initial USDA projections are based on simple math.  As the season progresses, new information is available that we should all use to modify our own estimate of yields and thus markets.  Too many people take an initial projection as a prediction; they're sure to be disappointed, and of course, are delighted that USDA was "off again".

It's like starting on a cross-country trip and figuring it will take 24 hours of driving time.  Well, low-and behold the new bypass was put in, traffic is light, the kids aren't fighting, mom is happy and you're there 2 hours early.  That's compared with last year when you ran into snow, there were accidents, mom had to stop every hour and you got there two hours later than you'd counted on and low-and-behold, they motel had let out your room.  Did you stop to call them and let them know you'd be late?  No?  Well, one can be happy to be unhappy.  Farming is like that.