Elwynn Taylor - La Nina like '73

[Jim Meade / Iowa City]

Now, here is a sobering idea.  Elwynn Taylor says the analog for the La Nina event is the year '73 which was followed by the cold, wet, early frost of '74.

Anyone remember those years?

http://twitpic.com/3ez1b4

[jrsiajdranch]

Well Jim I don't know about 73-74 I was born in 72.  BUt I sure do remember 86-88 and this feels a lot like those years.  86 was wet in the fall real late harvest. 87 was dry average yield no better but crops came off early.  and then 88 well who needs to recap that one.  There is already drought in the sout east and the south west.  California is dry and really concerned about snow fall in the mountains out there.  I have a feeling if the enduser has the money he better be booking everything he can for next year and the seller had better not sell till all the bushels he has are stored away and counted twice! 

And besides ET is due to be right on his drought calls! JR

[Ed_Winkle]

Those were tough years but I had good crops when others didn't.  I seem to do better in challenging years.

[nwobcw]

Jim if I remember correctly in '72 or'73 we had an extremely wet fall.  For some reason I'm sure '74 was a hot and dry summer.  Up until the last few years 1980 was the best year I ever had.  My 1st year for 50+ BPA beans.  A midafternoon storm would come thru almost every day in August and drop a few tenths.

[Blacksandfarmer]

Well Jim being that my parents were still in jr. High, I can't relate to those years but I do remember 2007. 2007 was the last La Nina and we had a devastating drought in this region, 2nd only to 1988. We had bad thunderstorms early in the spring followed by 7 weeks of nearly 0" of rainfall. Historically the Eastern Cornbelt has more frequent droughts related to La Nina, maybe we will see $10 corn and $20 beans this year.